***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2020.-27.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 -0.4 0.2 0.4 3.0 75.4 71.1 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.7 72.8 69.7 -3.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 1.7 2.4 0.3 2.9 75.8 71.3 -2.0 -0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 -3.8 -3.1 -2.2 3.0 75.7 72.0 -7.7 -5.8 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.7 -0.7 -1.8 3.0 73.6 71.5 -3.5 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 -1.4 -1.0 -3.3 3.2 75.9 72.7 -5.2 -3.5 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 -0.3 0.4 0.1 2.7 73.3 69.1 -4.2 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -6.1 -5.6 -3.2 3.0 74.0 71.0 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 0.1 0.8 -1.4 2.9 72.3 70.9 -2.9 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 0.0 -0.1 -2.7 2.9 72.6 70.5 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 -0.2 -0.4 -2.1 3.1 74.2 72.5 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 -0.9 -0.3 -2.5 3.3 75.8 72.7 -4.2 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 -0.4 0.1 -2.7 3.3 77.3 73.1 -4.5 -2.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 0.8 0.5 -2.0 2.5 68.5 67.8 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -1.1 -1.3 2.7 75.3 71.3 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 0.0 0.2 -2.5 3.2 75.7 72.9 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 2.5 69.2 67.7 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 -2.1 -2.0 -3.5 2.8 70.3 69.3 -5.5 -3.3 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.7 73.9 70.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 -4.3 -3.9 -4.3 2.9 72.3 69.4 -9.5 -6.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 2.9 73.8 71.0 -3.0 -2.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 2.4 69.7 67.7 -3.2 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 2.7 74.0 70.9 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1 2.7 69.7 69.2 -3.6 -2.7 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.7 2.9 74.7 70.8 -3.0 -1.8 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 -0.8 -0.2 -2.5 3.5 78.0 74.6 -3.8 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 0.8 1.6 0.1 3.0 75.1 70.7 -3.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 -1.6 -1.1 -2.2 2.9 75.5 71.7 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 -3.0 -3.0 -3.7 2.8 70.0 69.1 -6.0 -5.2 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 0.4 1.0 0.1 2.8 74.7 70.3 -3.5 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------