***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 2.0 2.7 4.2 3.8 84.6 79.9 -1.8 0.5 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 1.8 2.3 3.3 3.2 81.3 77.8 -2.2 0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 3.2 4.0 3.9 3.5 84.5 78.9 -0.9 1.4 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 -2.5 -1.1 1.4 3.4 84.8 79.3 -6.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.8 85.1 79.9 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 0.1 0.6 0.6 3.7 86.8 81.8 -3.7 -0.9 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 1.6 2.3 3.5 3.3 82.9 78.5 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 -3.7 -2.9 0.7 3.7 84.9 80.1 -6.7 -5.4 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 2.0 2.6 2.3 3.5 84.2 79.2 -2.3 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 1.0 1.7 1.0 3.5 83.5 78.9 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 1.1 1.9 2.0 3.6 84.6 79.4 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 0.0 0.6 1.7 3.9 87.0 80.8 -3.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 0.5 1.2 1.4 3.6 86.8 79.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 1.8 2.5 1.6 3.1 80.5 75.9 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 1.1 1.7 2.8 3.3 85.3 79.9 -2.2 -0.7 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 1.4 2.0 1.5 3.6 85.2 79.8 -1.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 1.3 1.6 3.0 3.0 77.3 76.5 -2.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 -1.1 0.2 0.3 3.4 82.5 77.9 -3.6 -2.2 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 1.6 2.1 3.3 3.2 81.6 77.6 -2.0 0.1 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -2.8 -2.0 -0.2 4.0 84.6 80.2 -7.1 -4.4 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 2.0 2.7 3.5 3.6 85.9 79.3 -2.4 0.0 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 1.2 1.7 2.9 2.8 77.1 75.4 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 1.5 2.0 3.1 3.1 80.6 77.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 0.9 1.8 1.6 3.1 82.5 77.2 -1.5 -0.9 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 1.7 2.3 3.7 3.9 86.2 80.8 -1.9 0.1 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 0.4 1.5 1.9 4.2 90.3 83.5 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 2.3 3.0 4.1 3.9 85.3 80.4 -2.1 0.3 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 0.3 1.3 1.6 3.3 83.2 78.5 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 3.5 81.8 78.2 -5.9 -3.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 2.0 2.5 3.7 3.4 82.9 78.7 -2.1 0.3 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------