***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 25.8 24.6 29.7 64.9 33.1 31.7 24.5 33.9 51.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 26.6 21.7 27.2 62.9 31.3 31.6 22.0 36.5 45.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 35.2 34.2 29.7 64.1 31.0 30.8 34.3 43.2 65.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 33.8 31.0 31.2 56.2 26.8 26.8 32.9 50.8 63.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 37.3 33.9 33.5 62.0 27.8 28.4 35.5 52.9 63.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 27.7 27.6 33.5 63.3 24.6 27.1 29.9 37.0 50.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 24.3 24.2 28.1 65.1 34.0 33.1 23.8 31.8 52.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 45.7 47.9 35.6 62.2 25.8 26.9 50.7 57.8 79.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 27.7 27.1 35.6 67.0 29.8 31.5 29.0 38.5 50.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 34.1 39.2 36.8 65.6 28.7 29.5 40.3 46.4 55.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 32.7 33.2 30.7 60.6 25.9 26.9 37.2 41.0 58.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 34.3 33.4 31.1 60.5 24.2 25.7 36.6 44.9 64.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 33.7 30.5 32.1 61.2 21.8 24.9 40.1 47.5 64.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 48.5 45.9 35.6 65.0 30.1 29.6 47.3 59.7 64.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 28.7 23.4 27.0 46.8 21.2 23.4 34.7 51.3 69.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 27.7 24.6 30.4 60.6 23.8 26.0 31.0 45.3 57.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 24.5 26.0 26.9 64.1 33.0 31.8 26.0 32.7 47.3 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 35.4 39.0 40.8 67.7 31.3 30.4 39.8 48.7 58.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 28.3 27.3 27.8 62.9 30.2 30.7 28.3 38.1 55.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 39.3 33.3 45.8 61.7 25.2 26.5 34.7 60.1 71.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 33.7 31.6 32.2 65.0 31.0 31.0 32.4 45.0 55.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 25.9 26.6 27.5 62.3 30.7 29.7 26.9 34.3 52.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 28.3 27.5 30.4 65.3 30.4 30.9 28.7 40.6 52.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 41.7 47.6 36.0 66.8 32.1 31.0 48.1 52.9 56.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 28.0 30.0 35.2 65.1 32.7 31.0 30.1 40.0 58.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 28.5 25.3 32.2 58.2 19.7 22.9 31.8 40.3 53.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.8 27.9 34.4 68.4 35.9 33.2 27.0 34.2 56.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 27.6 29.3 28.6 52.4 23.2 24.8 33.0 46.5 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 54.6 64.6 42.9 66.7 29.7 29.6 65.6 70.1 91.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 26.1 23.7 27.8 63.5 31.5 31.5 23.8 36.5 53.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------