***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 1.9 5.0 7.2 78.3 51.9 43.6 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 8.3 6.2 68.5 48.7 41.3 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.4 9.9 7.5 82.2 50.6 45.0 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 12.1 14.3 9.6 94.6 63.1 49.1 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.9 17.3 9.6 97.5 61.9 48.5 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.8 15.1 11.2 115.2 64.1 54.9 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.9 6.1 66.0 49.0 40.4 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.4 19.1 11.4 109.9 63.2 51.3 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.1 8.9 9.6 93.6 59.0 47.4 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.8 13.5 10.9 101.9 62.2 49.5 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.5 17.8 9.6 106.9 66.3 50.5 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 15.7 10.0 113.8 64.6 52.1 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.9 10.7 117.6 64.2 54.6 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.6 13.4 9.9 89.2 54.2 47.3 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.4 9.0 89.5 59.3 49.7 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 5.7 14.7 9.8 112.6 68.1 52.7 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.5 8.6 5.9 66.5 49.5 42.2 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.2 9.3 11.6 98.4 60.0 49.4 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.9 9.1 6.5 72.9 48.4 42.8 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.7 17.5 14.9 105.6 63.7 51.1 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.4 10.3 8.6 88.6 59.3 45.9 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.1 6.3 72.4 51.2 44.1 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.1 7.5 80.4 48.2 45.4 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.4 9.4 9.8 91.8 55.5 47.8 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.0 9.1 85.9 55.6 45.4 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.8 15.6 10.7 115.5 64.9 53.2 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.4 8.1 8.1 79.7 52.1 43.4 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.6 9.6 99.2 64.6 50.7 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 8.6 18.3 12.6 100.0 61.9 49.9 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.7 6.4 71.3 48.9 41.6 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------