***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.3 13.7 122.5 68.5 56.0 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.0 14.4 13.4 133.5 72.1 58.7 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.5 16.8 13.6 120.7 67.2 55.6 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.7 14.0 13.7 100.8 62.7 50.6 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.6 16.5 13.8 101.5 62.2 51.3 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 7.7 11.6 85.4 49.4 43.8 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.9 16.3 13.3 133.2 72.2 58.8 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.0 18.9 14.0 94.0 56.8 49.0 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.6 11.5 14.2 102.6 64.5 52.1 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.2 15.2 14.3 97.2 58.5 50.3 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 6.0 12.9 12.6 96.3 59.2 49.7 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 6.9 12.9 12.3 91.4 56.4 47.6 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.7 12.0 12.1 89.0 51.0 45.4 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.6 15.2 112.9 65.0 54.2 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.3 12.2 87.2 56.6 48.0 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.8 11.9 93.1 56.1 47.3 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.5 12.7 137.8 71.7 59.2 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.4 10.4 15.4 98.3 56.9 50.4 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.4 14.8 13.4 129.4 71.4 57.6 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 16.0 18.3 98.8 58.5 50.8 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.5 12.5 13.8 110.5 63.1 54.0 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.5 16.3 13.3 136.0 71.6 59.2 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.7 13.6 122.3 68.2 56.3 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.6 14.6 107.4 59.9 52.9 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.4 15.3 15.7 120.3 69.2 55.2 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.8 12.7 11.9 86.2 52.0 45.5 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.1 15.4 15.2 126.1 70.7 56.8 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.0 13.7 12.2 90.3 58.1 47.6 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.4 21.8 16.5 99.4 58.2 50.8 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 16.7 13.6 130.4 71.9 57.8 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------