***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 1.6 1.3 5.2 43.7 33.6 30.3 1.3 3.8 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 1.6 1.6 4.2 37.6 33.8 27.0 1.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 1.6 3.1 5.4 43.3 32.0 27.9 3.7 5.1 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 3.3 4.9 5.4 37.6 32.2 26.9 5.0 6.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.4 3.1 6.4 42.3 30.3 27.7 3.3 7.5 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 1.2 1.2 6.4 42.0 30.4 26.8 1.4 3.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.3 2.6 4.3 39.6 37.6 28.3 2.1 5.3 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 7.9 7.9 6.1 37.3 28.0 24.9 8.5 12.2 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.3 3.3 7.3 47.9 32.8 31.3 3.3 5.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 2.9 4.7 7.2 44.6 31.6 28.4 4.8 7.6 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 2.0 1.7 5.5 37.9 28.3 25.3 2.3 6.3 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 2.3 3.6 5.2 35.5 27.9 24.3 4.6 6.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.3 5.9 39.6 29.3 25.8 3.4 5.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 3.5 4.0 7.0 46.5 29.6 27.9 4.7 11.4 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 0.8 0.5 4.1 27.2 24.1 20.8 1.6 4.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 1.9 1.8 5.3 37.0 28.1 25.0 2.1 3.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 1.7 3.1 4.0 37.0 35.2 27.6 2.8 3.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.5 3.9 8.2 47.6 33.0 28.7 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 2.0 2.4 4.5 39.0 31.6 26.6 2.6 6.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 4.5 5.0 7.7 38.0 27.4 24.6 5.5 7.7 13.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 3.0 3.6 6.4 46.5 35.5 31.4 3.3 7.3 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 1.6 1.9 4.1 35.7 30.4 24.9 3.2 6.4 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 1.9 3.7 5.5 44.3 31.1 28.6 3.9 7.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 2.7 4.2 7.3 47.8 33.2 29.1 4.2 7.2 17.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.3 3.3 6.2 43.7 34.1 28.7 3.2 5.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.8 2.9 5.6 37.5 26.5 25.1 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 1.8 2.3 6.1 46.5 35.5 30.9 2.3 4.0 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.5 1.3 4.6 31.7 27.6 22.9 1.7 4.5 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 5.9 7.8 8.3 45.6 31.9 27.8 7.9 14.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.7 4.4 39.2 34.1 27.1 1.6 5.3 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------