***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 2.2 1.3 3.6 26.6 27.2 24.7 3.5 7.2 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 1.6 0.7 3.4 26.1 26.3 21.7 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.6 1.7 3.1 23.2 25.8 20.9 5.5 12.9 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 2.5 1.9 2.5 14.5 14.9 12.1 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.6 3.6 23.9 19.9 18.0 2.6 7.7 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 0.7 0.7 4.4 30.1 24.6 22.4 1.5 3.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 2.3 2.4 4.3 33.4 32.3 27.7 2.4 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 5.1 4.0 4.0 26.1 23.6 18.9 5.3 13.0 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.7 1.4 4.6 33.1 28.6 25.5 2.6 8.6 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 2.7 1.9 4.5 30.7 27.5 22.1 3.3 7.5 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 1.8 0.8 3.0 21.4 22.2 17.6 1.9 8.4 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.2 3.5 24.4 24.3 18.4 2.9 6.9 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 1.7 1.2 3.4 23.1 22.5 17.7 2.6 7.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 3.6 4.4 3.5 23.2 24.6 17.5 5.8 13.0 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.7 9.1 10.0 9.0 0.9 5.6 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 1.1 0.9 3.4 23.6 22.1 18.8 1.9 4.1 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.8 1.7 4.3 32.7 33.7 27.7 1.7 5.0 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.0 2.8 5.6 36.3 28.8 24.6 4.0 12.9 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 1.4 1.0 3.4 25.4 25.3 21.0 2.8 7.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 1.3 0.4 4.9 23.7 18.1 15.9 2.7 6.4 17.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 2.0 1.6 3.4 25.0 26.3 22.6 3.2 8.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 1.7 0.5 3.7 26.6 26.1 21.1 1.5 7.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.1 0.9 3.8 28.0 26.9 22.3 4.0 8.0 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.7 4.3 4.4 29.9 29.0 22.6 5.3 11.4 19.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 1.4 1.0 4.2 26.0 22.5 19.8 3.3 6.0 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 1.0 1.0 3.9 22.5 23.8 18.6 1.5 3.8 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.4 3.0 4.9 32.9 30.2 26.0 3.3 6.6 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.0 2.1 13.3 12.8 11.1 0.9 6.7 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 5.1 4.6 5.5 32.9 25.5 21.8 6.9 15.9 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.7 3.4 25.8 26.0 22.0 2.9 7.8 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------