***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.0 5.4 4.3 1.3 58.7 61.0 2.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.3 6.4 4.2 1.5 63.3 62.8 2.1 3.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.6 6.7 4.4 1.4 61.0 61.6 3.2 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.8 1.5 2.2 1.5 63.2 63.0 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.2 2.6 1.4 61.1 62.0 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.3 5.1 2.0 1.1 60.1 59.1 1.9 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.8 6.0 4.1 1.5 61.8 62.4 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.2 -0.8 2.3 1.1 58.3 60.3 -2.2 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.4 3.5 1.3 60.0 61.2 2.8 4.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 6.6 5.5 2.9 1.2 59.3 60.6 2.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 7.0 5.9 2.5 1.3 61.0 61.5 2.6 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 7.2 5.5 2.4 1.1 59.5 60.7 2.5 4.7 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.3 2.0 1.0 60.0 59.7 2.6 4.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 8.2 7.9 4.2 1.6 65.0 63.0 2.9 5.2 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.3 4.2 2.6 1.6 63.9 63.4 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 7.1 5.8 2.2 1.3 61.6 61.4 2.7 4.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.1 6.0 4.0 1.5 63.7 62.8 1.3 3.4 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.6 3.0 1.2 58.9 60.2 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 6.8 6.7 4.4 1.5 63.9 62.8 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 3.5 1.0 1.5 1.0 55.1 59.0 -0.5 0.4 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.3 6.1 4.0 1.4 60.3 61.3 2.8 4.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.7 6.1 4.3 1.6 64.0 63.2 1.9 4.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.9 6.5 4.6 1.6 63.5 62.9 2.5 4.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 7.6 6.5 4.0 1.3 61.6 61.3 2.5 5.0 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.5 2.9 1.3 59.7 61.6 2.5 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 5.7 4.6 1.8 0.9 60.7 59.2 2.5 3.7 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.0 3.7 1.3 58.8 61.1 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.8 2.4 1.6 64.3 63.2 2.2 3.9 4.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 3.8 2.4 2.5 1.1 56.9 59.9 0.1 1.7 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.1 6.6 4.3 1.5 62.1 62.2 1.9 3.3 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------