***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 5.9 6.2 5.8 2.9 77.3 74.0 3.1 3.6 4.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.0 7.5 5.6 2.9 78.9 74.2 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 7.5 8.2 5.9 3.1 78.2 75.2 3.9 4.9 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 2.9 3.8 3.8 3.1 78.3 76.2 -2.1 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 6.9 7.5 4.4 3.2 78.1 75.9 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 7.2 8.1 3.7 2.9 79.5 74.7 3.8 4.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 5.6 6.2 5.4 2.8 77.5 73.7 1.8 2.7 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 1.3 1.8 3.8 2.8 81.2 74.2 -1.4 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 8.1 9.5 5.3 3.3 81.4 76.2 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 7.1 8.5 4.5 3.0 81.5 74.9 3.8 4.5 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 7.5 8.4 4.1 2.9 78.8 75.3 3.6 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 8.6 9.4 3.9 2.7 79.2 74.3 3.3 5.4 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 8.4 9.4 3.6 2.6 79.0 73.8 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 7.9 9.4 5.5 3.1 80.9 75.1 3.6 4.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 5.5 6.5 4.2 3.0 79.1 76.2 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 8.8 9.6 3.9 2.9 78.1 75.1 3.1 5.4 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 5.2 5.8 5.4 2.9 77.7 73.9 2.0 2.8 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.8 4.5 2.9 81.3 74.0 1.2 2.6 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 6.7 8.4 5.8 3.0 80.1 74.7 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 4.7 5.3 2.8 2.5 79.3 72.2 0.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 7.5 8.7 5.7 3.2 80.6 75.9 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 5.9 7.6 5.6 2.9 79.4 74.3 2.1 3.2 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 6.2 8.2 6.0 3.1 81.0 75.2 2.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 7.7 9.8 5.5 3.1 81.0 75.3 4.4 5.1 6.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 6.4 7.2 4.5 2.9 78.3 74.9 2.9 4.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 7.1 9.0 3.4 2.5 79.4 72.9 3.3 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 7.4 8.0 5.1 2.8 77.5 73.8 3.8 4.9 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 7.7 8.5 4.1 3.2 78.6 76.4 2.1 4.8 6.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 4.3 5.0 3.8 2.7 79.5 72.7 0.4 2.4 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 6.3 7.1 5.7 2.9 77.7 74.2 2.2 3.4 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------