***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 7.6 7.9 8.1 1.0 56.0 58.1 4.9 7.3 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 47 53 100 7.9 7.9 8.3 1.6 65.8 66.2 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 8.1 8.2 8.5 1.3 58.6 61.2 4.3 7.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.1 4.2 6.1 1.9 63.8 65.7 -0.6 2.2 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 7.8 7.7 6.7 0.9 52.8 55.0 5.5 7.5 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 7.4 7.7 6.0 1.0 55.5 56.6 5.1 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 7.7 8.1 8.1 1.5 65.1 65.2 4.2 5.9 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 2.5 2.7 6.1 1.1 55.9 58.2 0.6 2.3 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 8.4 8.6 7.9 1.3 57.6 59.1 5.9 7.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 8.2 8.1 6.8 1.1 55.5 56.5 5.4 7.8 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 8.1 8.0 6.8 0.9 51.7 54.6 5.3 7.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 8.4 8.2 6.5 1.0 53.3 56.3 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 8.6 8.4 6.9 0.7 50.4 53.0 5.8 8.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 8.2 8.8 8.1 1.6 60.9 61.5 5.0 7.8 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 8.4 9.2 8.9 3.4 86.4 82.8 4.1 6.4 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 9.1 8.7 6.6 0.8 50.0 54.0 5.7 8.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.9 8.2 2.0 73.3 71.4 3.4 5.5 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 5.9 6.2 6.2 0.8 54.3 54.4 3.5 5.7 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 7.3 7.8 8.4 1.6 65.2 65.1 3.5 7.0 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 5.9 6.1 4.6 0.7 54.8 55.4 2.8 5.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.0 8.5 8.6 1.5 62.1 62.0 4.7 7.5 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.9 8.1 8.3 2.0 72.0 71.0 3.8 5.9 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 7.3 7.8 8.3 1.5 63.2 63.4 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 8.9 8.9 7.9 1.3 58.3 59.4 6.4 8.7 10.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 6.8 7.0 7.4 1.3 59.4 59.9 4.7 6.4 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 8.3 8.2 6.1 0.8 52.6 55.6 5.8 8.0 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 8.0 8.3 7.6 0.9 55.3 56.8 4.7 7.7 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 8.6 9.3 7.4 2.4 70.8 70.6 4.8 6.6 8.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 5.6 5.6 5.3 0.5 52.9 52.4 2.7 5.3 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 7.2 7.6 8.3 1.4 61.2 63.2 4.0 6.8 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------