***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.8 57.3 60.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 -0.2 -0.5 0.4 1.3 65.1 66.5 -1.7 -1.2 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.9 59.2 61.9 0.2 0.6 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 -4.5 -4.2 -2.4 1.4 62.8 65.0 -5.6 -4.8 -3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 -1.3 -0.5 -2.4 1.1 59.9 62.0 -1.8 -1.6 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 -1.8 -1.7 -3.8 1.1 60.7 62.7 -2.6 -2.0 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 -0.2 -0.5 0.5 1.3 65.7 66.7 -1.7 -1.1 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -5.9 -5.8 -3.9 0.8 56.3 59.3 -6.6 -6.2 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 -0.6 0.0 -1.5 1.1 60.6 63.1 -1.5 -0.8 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 -1.1 -0.9 -3.0 0.9 58.4 60.5 -2.0 -1.3 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.9 1.1 58.6 60.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -1.7 -3.4 0.8 54.5 58.8 -2.9 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -1.3 -1.3 -3.4 0.9 57.0 60.2 -1.9 -1.6 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 0.1 0.0 -1.6 1.1 61.2 64.0 -0.9 -0.6 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9 1.7 68.8 71.0 -2.4 -1.7 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.2 -3.3 1.0 59.2 60.5 -1.2 -0.7 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 -0.7 -0.9 0.6 1.6 68.0 70.0 -2.0 -1.3 -0.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.3 -3.5 0.8 57.8 60.4 -3.6 -2.6 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 -0.3 -0.5 0.3 1.2 64.3 65.6 -1.6 -1.1 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -5.6 -5.3 -5.2 0.6 57.6 58.2 -6.3 -6.0 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 1.1 60.1 63.6 -1.5 -0.9 -0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -0.8 0.5 1.5 68.9 69.4 -1.8 -1.2 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 1.1 63.3 64.4 -1.6 -1.1 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -0.9 -1.8 1.0 60.6 63.1 -2.0 -1.2 -0.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 -0.7 -0.5 -1.1 1.0 58.1 61.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 -1.1 -0.8 -3.3 0.7 57.8 59.5 -2.3 -1.3 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.9 57.9 60.8 -1.5 -0.8 0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 -2.3 -1.9 -2.1 1.5 64.7 66.9 -2.9 -2.5 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 -3.5 -3.5 -4.5 0.5 56.7 57.3 -4.4 -3.7 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 0.1 -0.3 0.4 1.1 63.6 64.1 -1.4 -0.9 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------