***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.2 49.4 52.1 -1.8 0.5 1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.6 56.7 54.9 -2.2 0.1 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 1.8 2.0 0.1 0.5 53.7 54.8 -0.9 1.4 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -3.8 -3.7 -2.3 1.0 53.5 55.5 -6.5 -4.0 -2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 0.1 0.0 -2.4 0.8 52.7 55.3 -2.3 -0.1 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -0.7 -1.0 -3.7 1.0 48.6 55.6 -3.7 -0.9 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 53.6 53.9 -2.0 -0.1 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -5.0 -5.4 -3.6 0.9 51.1 55.9 -6.7 -5.4 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 0.9 1.5 -1.5 0.9 57.3 57.8 -2.3 0.6 1.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 0.2 0.1 -2.8 0.9 53.4 56.3 -1.7 -0.1 0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 -0.1 -0.3 -2.7 0.9 50.2 54.6 -2.1 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 -1.0 -1.3 -3.1 0.7 49.3 53.8 -3.5 -1.2 0.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -0.4 -0.7 -3.3 0.7 49.4 53.2 -2.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 0.5 0.5 -1.5 1.1 57.9 59.5 -0.9 0.2 1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 -0.4 -0.1 -1.0 1.3 57.5 59.2 -2.2 -0.7 0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 0.1 -0.2 -3.1 0.9 48.8 53.8 -1.8 -0.1 1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.9 57.2 56.5 -2.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -2.0 -3.5 0.8 53.2 56.1 -3.6 -2.2 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 0.4 1.0 0.1 0.7 58.0 55.7 -2.0 0.1 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 -4.0 -4.2 -5.1 0.9 54.3 56.8 -7.1 -4.4 -3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 0.4 0.5 -0.4 0.7 56.8 56.7 -2.4 0.0 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 -0.1 0.5 0.2 0.9 60.0 57.6 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 0.2 0.8 -0.1 0.8 58.4 57.7 -1.7 -0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 -0.5 -0.5 -1.7 0.9 56.4 57.5 -1.5 -0.9 1.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 0.4 0.2 -1.3 0.6 52.5 54.1 -1.9 0.1 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -1.0 -1.5 -3.3 0.4 44.7 51.3 -2.6 -1.3 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 0.7 0.4 -0.6 0.3 50.4 52.2 -2.1 0.3 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 -1.6 -1.5 -1.9 1.3 54.7 57.4 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -3.0 -3.4 -4.2 0.7 53.6 55.9 -5.9 -3.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.5 53.7 53.7 -2.1 0.3 1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------