***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 40.9 45.9 53.5 115.2 65.4 57.4 24.5 35.8 46.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 24.0 38.2 45.7 111.1 61.8 53.0 24.3 31.5 42.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 32.5 48.8 50.5 109.1 59.4 54.9 35.2 43.0 61.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 55.3 57.6 59.0 109.8 61.5 55.5 32.1 49.3 64.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 52.4 54.5 60.5 116.0 65.9 59.4 39.7 48.0 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 41.8 46.3 57.4 115.2 65.4 57.8 29.9 38.3 46.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.1 49.5 45.9 113.4 63.4 54.0 23.4 31.9 51.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 75.7 77.2 64.9 121.4 71.3 61.6 48.3 59.3 72.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 42.2 48.5 60.1 113.3 64.7 58.3 28.8 39.1 49.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 51.9 56.3 63.7 116.0 67.7 59.8 38.0 47.2 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 46.8 55.8 60.7 118.5 67.1 60.4 35.0 39.8 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 35.5 70.4 60.7 123.4 72.0 61.7 37.1 47.3 58.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 59.0 56.5 63.1 117.2 67.2 59.3 40.1 49.3 55.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 61.0 59.3 61.2 107.5 57.7 54.6 45.8 57.2 61.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 61.4 62.8 55.2 102.1 56.5 51.6 28.2 53.5 75.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 49.9 56.8 60.0 117.7 65.8 59.2 31.0 44.9 57.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 23.4 39.2 43.3 109.5 60.2 52.2 26.1 34.3 43.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 51.3 56.5 64.3 113.7 67.5 58.6 35.2 47.7 55.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 24.1 41.7 46.7 109.3 61.9 53.0 29.0 34.1 46.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 69.9 72.8 78.9 117.2 71.9 59.1 33.3 48.2 71.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 50.4 50.8 56.5 111.0 60.3 57.0 33.1 48.5 51.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 25.2 46.8 45.0 107.6 61.4 51.4 29.0 34.2 53.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 24.7 43.5 50.0 107.5 60.7 53.6 26.7 34.3 48.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 54.4 54.0 58.2 109.8 58.9 56.5 40.5 51.1 57.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 44.3 52.2 61.4 116.8 64.5 59.3 27.2 39.8 53.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 44.8 45.9 60.1 118.4 63.7 59.1 32.1 39.5 47.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 44.2 49.5 57.6 119.0 67.1 59.5 26.8 37.4 49.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 50.3 51.0 55.7 107.2 59.3 53.9 32.5 46.0 56.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 56.2 88.7 67.8 112.7 66.3 57.7 58.8 72.2 88.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 25.0 45.8 47.3 111.3 61.9 53.7 22.6 35.8 47.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------