***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.6 9.4 12.4 126.5 68.0 56.5 3.0 6.4 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.4 10.9 125.6 66.9 56.2 5.4 7.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 11.0 16.8 12.2 122.5 67.6 56.1 4.7 8.5 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.6 20.4 15.3 144.5 77.9 62.7 6.4 11.8 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 19.2 21.2 15.4 137.6 75.2 61.8 8.4 12.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.1 18.0 14.3 136.1 73.1 61.3 5.3 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.7 12.8 10.8 129.0 69.3 56.6 4.9 8.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.3 22.0 15.8 132.9 71.1 60.9 10.1 13.6 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.0 13.0 15.8 130.1 72.6 59.6 6.0 7.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.1 16.2 128.5 70.9 60.1 6.6 11.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.3 15.3 138.9 74.4 62.9 8.0 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.6 17.2 14.7 137.6 72.4 61.8 6.1 8.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.3 21.2 15.5 139.0 74.1 62.4 6.9 10.9 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.0 16.2 15.1 117.8 65.3 54.9 9.9 12.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.6 25.8 15.8 162.3 82.0 65.0 1.9 9.3 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.5 15.2 142.7 75.3 63.6 6.8 10.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.0 13.0 10.6 128.5 69.4 57.0 3.9 7.3 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.3 16.0 122.4 64.9 58.9 4.5 8.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.7 11.3 11.3 124.0 67.1 55.5 4.8 8.2 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 13.0 19.0 125.6 63.1 58.2 5.3 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.7 13.6 14.2 126.7 70.5 58.3 6.0 7.3 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.7 12.0 11.3 131.3 72.1 56.9 4.5 6.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.0 12.2 121.6 66.9 54.4 3.9 6.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.2 13.3 14.4 121.9 67.9 58.1 5.7 9.9 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.0 16.5 14.5 129.9 68.5 58.7 5.5 10.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 15.0 14.2 137.8 74.5 60.2 7.1 9.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.4 15.2 13.3 129.0 67.4 57.6 4.2 9.3 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 16.0 24.1 15.3 153.3 80.0 64.2 3.7 7.9 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 18.7 16.6 119.9 63.7 57.6 7.9 13.4 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.2 10.4 11.2 124.5 67.0 56.3 4.7 8.0 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------