***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 14.8 12.3 16.0 125.1 72.8 58.8 4.4 6.0 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 10.8 11.4 13.3 119.3 69.9 57.3 3.9 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.3 14.6 14.8 118.5 70.1 57.8 5.5 7.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.5 16.1 18.3 137.0 73.4 60.2 6.2 8.0 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 16.2 18.4 134.5 72.3 59.2 7.8 9.5 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.8 12.3 18.3 138.3 70.0 57.9 3.3 6.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.8 13.1 118.3 69.1 57.1 4.6 7.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.3 26.3 20.9 154.1 79.0 61.6 13.3 20.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.9 18.4 127.4 72.5 58.6 5.7 7.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.4 17.2 19.6 135.2 75.2 59.3 8.3 12.2 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.3 14.6 19.1 146.0 75.8 60.3 6.2 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.3 19.8 159.1 78.8 61.4 6.6 13.2 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.2 20.0 20.1 148.5 77.0 59.5 6.6 11.4 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.9 17.7 115.3 67.8 57.1 10.2 13.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.6 16.3 17.9 133.4 74.0 60.3 3.1 5.2 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.0 18.1 19.2 148.9 76.0 60.0 6.3 8.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.9 12.6 116.2 66.7 55.2 4.7 8.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 17.2 19.2 128.4 74.9 58.8 8.3 11.4 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.4 13.5 117.8 68.9 57.2 4.6 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.2 24.1 25.4 148.2 80.1 61.8 8.2 12.9 17.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.5 13.8 16.8 125.0 73.1 59.1 6.1 7.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.8 13.5 13.2 116.3 65.9 56.1 5.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.9 14.3 116.5 67.9 56.8 3.4 7.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.2 17.0 16.8 119.3 72.0 58.1 7.9 12.8 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 12.5 13.4 18.2 131.0 74.1 60.9 3.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.2 17.5 19.9 156.3 76.9 61.9 6.7 9.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 14.1 12.5 17.0 127.6 73.1 59.5 3.7 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.3 15.9 17.8 137.6 74.4 59.2 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.9 29.6 20.6 130.7 75.4 59.5 15.9 20.8 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.2 13.1 13.9 120.2 71.9 57.6 3.8 7.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------