***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 11.7 15.9 18.8 188.6 83.0 70.0 1.6 6.4 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.1 18.3 16.3 193.6 82.8 68.1 2.5 6.7 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.4 21.5 16.9 169.1 80.7 65.8 1.4 5.7 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.9 18.6 152.8 77.7 62.7 5.3 8.6 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 14.8 20.1 18.6 159.2 80.8 65.3 4.6 7.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 8.2 11.8 18.1 161.7 78.4 64.2 1.8 2.9 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 10.6 14.6 17.1 205.0 83.6 70.1 2.1 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.2 21.9 19.7 157.6 79.1 63.5 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 9.5 15.3 18.6 159.8 82.6 65.7 2.6 4.7 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 13.6 19.5 18.9 153.4 79.7 63.7 2.9 5.1 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.5 15.8 18.7 154.6 77.9 63.9 2.1 4.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 11.0 13.7 19.2 159.4 77.7 63.7 4.4 5.4 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 8.6 10.5 19.1 151.1 75.7 62.6 3.5 4.8 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 20.1 25.8 20.2 161.8 78.2 65.3 4.5 9.6 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.0 14.1 16.9 148.2 76.2 59.2 0.8 3.3 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 10.3 13.2 18.6 157.2 78.3 64.2 2.3 5.8 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.3 14.6 15.9 198.7 83.8 69.7 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.0 20.2 19.9 153.9 79.2 63.5 2.8 5.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 12.0 18.6 16.2 184.8 81.9 66.7 2.4 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 16.5 23.7 152.2 79.9 61.1 3.9 6.6 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 11.7 15.7 18.4 166.9 82.1 66.9 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.1 20.7 15.8 186.3 82.2 67.3 2.8 6.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 13.2 16.9 16.8 172.0 80.1 65.0 1.4 8.2 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 15.8 22.4 18.9 157.6 79.0 64.8 2.0 7.4 16.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 9.6 14.8 20.7 178.7 83.8 70.1 2.4 6.7 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.4 13.0 19.2 159.9 78.3 63.8 4.4 5.3 7.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.0 18.9 20.6 197.8 86.4 72.4 3.9 5.7 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.3 9.0 16.9 144.6 76.1 59.2 0.9 5.4 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 25.4 21.3 153.5 78.6 63.0 4.7 14.6 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 10.8 15.6 16.6 188.3 81.2 67.5 2.2 5.8 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------