***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.6 6.3 45.2 34.7 31.0 3.5 6.2 14.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.7 1.4 5.2 40.1 31.6 28.7 1.6 4.5 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.3 3.5 6.7 47.7 37.5 32.3 3.1 5.1 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 4.3 4.6 6.8 38.9 30.7 26.9 4.7 9.6 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.4 3.0 8.1 51.8 37.3 31.5 2.1 9.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.1 1.8 6.7 44.8 32.1 29.9 2.5 7.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.2 2.1 4.8 38.0 31.3 27.7 2.6 5.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 5.1 5.6 8.6 55.0 38.1 33.9 5.4 11.4 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.9 2.2 7.4 49.6 35.5 31.7 1.8 4.5 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.2 3.2 9.0 57.8 40.4 34.4 2.4 4.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 1.9 3.0 7.6 50.5 37.7 31.0 2.6 5.6 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.6 7.1 50.1 35.1 32.1 2.7 10.0 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 2.2 3.6 8.3 50.5 31.5 30.9 4.1 9.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.0 3.6 8.2 50.5 36.4 31.9 3.1 11.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 1.8 1.0 4.5 23.3 25.5 21.1 4.4 11.1 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 1.8 2.1 7.1 45.3 31.6 29.2 2.3 8.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 1.5 1.9 4.3 34.2 29.0 25.3 2.3 4.3 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.6 3.8 9.1 58.4 37.3 34.2 2.4 8.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.6 2.0 5.7 42.3 32.8 29.3 2.0 6.5 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.7 10.8 56.0 35.0 33.9 1.9 6.7 20.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.7 3.8 7.1 46.7 32.9 31.2 3.8 6.9 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.3 1.3 4.6 34.8 30.7 24.9 2.2 7.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.5 1.5 6.6 46.0 35.0 29.9 1.2 5.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.9 5.0 8.0 53.5 38.2 33.1 4.3 10.9 15.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.6 2.0 8.0 50.1 32.7 31.7 2.2 10.2 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.7 6.8 43.2 29.9 29.4 3.6 8.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.1 6.7 46.8 33.9 31.2 2.8 4.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 2.2 1.3 5.6 32.9 28.4 24.5 1.9 10.1 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.3 4.3 9.3 55.7 36.0 33.4 3.5 8.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.6 5.6 42.6 34.5 30.4 2.4 4.7 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------