***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 4.5 5.2 4.6 -0.6 34.8 42.6 5.1 5.8 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.7 -0.6 32.7 42.2 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.1 5.2 -0.5 39.0 44.5 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.2 0.6 2.3 -0.1 46.3 49.9 0.5 0.6 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.9 3.3 -0.5 39.0 44.9 5.4 6.2 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.7 5.1 2.8 -0.4 40.0 47.0 4.3 5.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.1 4.5 -0.8 31.7 41.3 4.2 4.9 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.1 3.0 -0.4 38.8 45.7 -0.3 0.6 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.5 6.3 4.3 -0.4 39.9 46.3 6.0 6.8 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 5.7 3.6 -0.4 40.4 46.6 5.5 5.9 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.1 6.1 3.6 -0.5 39.2 45.1 5.4 6.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.9 3.2 -0.5 38.0 45.1 5.6 6.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.6 3.3 -0.6 38.6 44.7 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.2 5.0 -0.1 45.0 49.0 5.6 6.3 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.4 3.6 0.0 43.3 50.3 4.3 4.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.3 3.2 -0.5 39.1 45.3 5.8 6.6 7.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.4 3.5 4.6 -0.6 33.1 42.9 3.5 4.5 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.8 3.6 -0.3 41.2 47.9 3.4 4.2 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 5.1 4.9 -0.5 36.3 43.4 5.0 5.5 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.1 2.9 2.1 -0.5 38.4 45.8 2.9 3.4 3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.0 5.8 4.8 -0.5 38.0 44.8 5.7 6.3 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.4 4.8 -0.4 38.2 44.3 4.0 5.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.5 5.2 5.2 -0.4 41.5 45.4 4.8 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.6 6.4 4.7 -0.2 42.9 48.1 6.2 6.6 7.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.3 4.9 3.5 -0.6 38.1 43.5 4.5 5.2 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.1 2.7 -0.7 34.7 42.3 5.1 5.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.8 4.2 -0.7 35.4 41.9 5.7 6.0 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.2 3.0 0.0 44.9 50.4 4.6 6.0 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 3.1 3.2 -0.3 39.6 47.7 2.6 3.4 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.1 4.8 4.6 -0.7 34.2 42.1 4.5 5.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------