***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 4.2 3.3 4.4 -3.2 13.6 18.5 5.1 7.5 9.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 3.4 3.3 4.7 -2.9 20.9 22.4 5.4 6.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 5.3 4.5 5.1 -2.9 21.6 23.9 5.8 9.0 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 2.4 -1.7 28.9 31.0 0.2 1.9 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 4.4 4.9 3.3 -3.0 20.6 21.1 6.0 8.2 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 3.9 3.4 1.9 -3.5 15.6 18.2 5.7 7.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 3.1 2.8 4.3 -3.2 16.9 18.4 5.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 -1.0 -0.7 2.5 -3.0 19.3 21.1 0.3 2.0 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 5.1 5.2 4.3 -2.8 22.8 23.0 5.9 9.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 5.0 4.8 3.4 -2.9 22.0 23.4 6.3 8.5 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 4.9 4.9 3.9 -3.1 20.5 20.9 5.9 8.7 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 4.3 4.2 2.9 -3.2 16.6 18.6 6.1 9.1 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 4.9 4.9 3.5 -3.8 16.6 17.3 6.2 8.2 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.1 6.2 5.2 -2.2 28.4 31.8 6.4 8.2 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.1 4.6 -1.2 28.1 32.3 5.5 7.1 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 5.1 5.4 3.2 -3.4 18.5 19.0 6.7 9.5 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.6 4.4 -2.6 23.6 23.6 4.8 6.2 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 3.4 3.4 3.0 -2.9 22.1 24.2 4.2 5.7 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 4.1 3.9 5.0 -2.7 23.9 24.8 4.9 7.5 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.8 1.4 -3.4 15.6 19.7 3.1 4.1 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 5.0 4.6 4.9 -2.9 20.8 21.9 6.2 8.8 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 4.1 3.7 5.0 -2.2 26.3 28.0 5.1 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.5 5.2 -2.5 27.6 27.4 6.1 7.8 8.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 6.4 5.9 4.8 -2.6 26.5 27.3 6.5 9.6 10.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 3.7 3.6 3.6 -3.1 17.8 18.6 5.4 6.9 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 4.3 3.9 1.8 -4.0 10.6 12.3 6.6 7.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 91 9 0 100 4.3 3.7 3.8 -3.5 12.7 16.0 5.5 8.2 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.1 4.8 3.5 -1.6 29.1 31.9 5.2 7.0 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 1.9 1.6 2.6 -2.9 21.9 24.3 3.0 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 3.7 3.2 4.6 -3.0 18.2 21.1 5.2 7.5 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------