***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 -1.7 -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 31.1 38.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -2.1 -1.7 -0.9 -0.8 30.1 39.6 -1.6 -1.0 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 0.1 0.4 -0.7 -0.8 31.8 39.7 0.5 1.2 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -5.6 -5.1 -3.2 -0.5 34.1 45.3 -5.2 -4.5 -3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -2.0 -2.0 -2.6 -0.8 34.6 41.6 -2.1 -0.7 -0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -2.8 -2.2 -4.3 -0.3 38.6 46.9 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 -2.1 -1.8 -0.9 -0.9 30.0 38.9 -1.8 -1.1 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -6.9 -6.3 -4.0 -0.5 37.5 43.8 -6.4 -5.9 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -1.3 -1.2 -2.2 -0.7 32.2 40.8 -1.2 -0.3 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -1.7 -3.4 -0.6 36.0 43.0 -1.9 -1.1 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 -3.0 -0.7 34.7 42.3 -1.6 -1.0 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 -1.6 -2.4 -3.5 -0.6 35.8 43.0 -2.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.7 -3.5 -0.4 39.5 45.1 -2.0 -1.1 -0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 -2.2 -0.4 38.2 45.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 -2.5 -2.4 -1.9 -0.5 31.0 43.8 -2.3 -1.2 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -1.3 -0.8 -3.4 -0.5 36.7 44.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 -2.2 -1.9 -0.9 -0.8 29.2 40.4 -1.8 -1.1 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -2.8 -3.8 -0.4 39.2 45.6 -3.6 -2.4 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 -1.9 -1.4 -0.9 -0.8 30.7 39.9 -1.3 -0.8 0.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -5.2 -5.8 -4.9 -0.3 43.7 47.1 -6.4 -5.7 -4.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -1.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 30.6 39.6 -1.5 -0.6 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 30.5 41.4 -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 -2.0 -1.4 -1.0 -0.7 31.5 40.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 -2.4 -0.5 35.3 43.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -1.8 -1.4 -1.8 -1.0 29.6 39.2 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.2 -3.7 -0.7 36.2 41.8 -2.3 -0.9 -0.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 -1.6 -1.5 -1.2 -1.1 29.6 38.2 -1.4 -0.6 0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 -3.3 -3.0 -2.9 -0.4 34.2 46.0 -3.1 -2.3 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -4.2 -3.7 -4.3 -0.3 41.9 47.1 -4.3 -3.4 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 -0.9 30.7 38.8 -1.5 -0.4 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------