***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 -0.9 -2.6 -2.2 -0.3 40.2 49.9 -3.6 -1.6 -0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 -3.4 -2.5 -2.4 -0.5 39.1 47.4 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -0.9 -2.1 -0.3 39.6 49.4 -1.4 -0.3 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -7.1 -6.6 -5.1 -0.4 39.4 50.5 -7.2 -5.8 -4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 -4.2 -3.4 -4.5 -0.3 39.4 50.2 -3.6 -2.3 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -5.4 -3.3 -5.9 0.4 46.4 54.4 -5.4 -3.2 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -3.8 -3.1 -2.3 -0.6 35.8 46.8 -3.2 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -9.5 -8.5 -5.6 -0.1 42.9 51.2 -9.5 -7.9 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -3.1 -3.0 -3.9 -0.4 37.7 49.6 -3.2 -1.5 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -3.4 -5.0 -0.2 41.2 50.5 -4.1 -2.1 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -2.9 -4.9 -0.2 41.8 51.0 -3.9 -2.2 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -5.8 -4.0 -5.2 0.0 43.6 51.7 -4.7 -3.7 -1.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 -4.2 -3.0 -5.4 0.2 46.2 53.3 -3.6 -2.6 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -2.9 -2.1 -3.7 -0.2 40.4 49.0 -2.3 -1.6 0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -4.2 -4.1 -4.1 -0.6 36.4 48.9 -4.3 -2.9 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 -3.6 -1.9 -5.4 0.0 42.6 52.5 -3.2 -1.6 0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 -4.1 -3.1 -2.3 -0.8 34.7 44.6 -3.2 -2.3 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -6.0 -3.9 -5.5 0.0 44.2 51.0 -5.8 -3.5 -3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -2.2 -2.3 -0.3 40.3 48.2 -2.8 -1.6 -0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -10.1 -6.5 -6.5 0.2 51.1 52.8 -10.4 -6.7 -4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 -2.9 -0.4 37.2 49.1 -3.2 -1.8 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -3.7 -3.1 -2.4 -0.6 36.6 45.0 -3.6 -2.0 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -3.7 -2.5 -2.3 -0.2 40.9 48.9 -2.7 -1.9 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -3.8 -3.0 -4.1 -0.2 38.9 49.2 -3.7 -2.3 -0.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 -3.3 -3.0 -3.5 -0.4 38.4 50.2 -3.4 -1.7 0.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -4.6 -3.0 -5.3 0.3 45.5 53.6 -5.3 -2.3 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 -3.2 -2.6 -2.7 -0.4 38.1 49.6 -3.3 -1.7 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 -5.1 -4.4 -5.0 -0.5 37.9 49.8 -4.9 -3.6 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 -6.6 -5.7 -5.8 0.2 47.4 51.9 -7.1 -5.5 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -2.1 -2.3 -0.3 40.6 48.7 -2.7 -1.5 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------