***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 54.7 56.6 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -1.7 -0.5 0.5 51.5 56.3 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 0.6 55.7 57.8 -1.0 -0.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -7.0 -5.1 -2.9 0.5 54.1 55.5 -6.7 -5.1 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 0.6 53.4 56.0 -3.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -1.6 -1.9 -3.9 1.1 56.0 58.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.3 51.4 55.4 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -5.8 -6.3 -3.6 0.9 55.2 57.5 -7.7 -6.6 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -1.0 -1.8 0.7 53.7 56.4 -2.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 -1.4 -1.7 -3.0 0.8 54.1 57.0 -2.9 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 -1.2 -1.3 -2.8 0.8 52.0 56.4 -2.7 -1.7 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.1 -3.1 1.0 55.3 57.8 -3.1 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -2.8 -0.8 -3.3 1.1 57.8 58.3 -2.9 -1.3 -0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -2.6 -1.1 -1.9 0.8 52.4 58.0 -1.7 -1.1 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -1.8 -2.5 -2.0 0.3 50.4 54.3 -2.7 -2.5 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -0.8 -3.2 0.9 55.1 57.4 -2.1 -1.3 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -3.3 -2.0 -0.5 0.3 51.1 55.7 -3.0 -2.0 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -2.5 -2.7 -3.6 1.0 54.3 57.4 -4.1 -2.9 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -3.1 -1.2 -0.5 0.6 52.9 57.2 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -4.4 -4.5 -4.7 1.2 57.0 58.6 -7.3 -4.9 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -1.2 -0.8 0.6 55.8 56.8 -3.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.5 52.9 57.3 -2.7 -1.5 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -2.9 -1.2 -0.5 0.6 54.6 57.9 -2.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 -1.4 -1.6 -2.2 0.8 52.1 57.2 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 -0.9 -1.3 -1.4 0.5 56.3 55.4 -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.3 -3.4 0.9 55.1 57.1 -2.8 -1.4 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -1.0 -1.2 -0.6 0.5 55.5 55.7 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.8 0.6 53.0 55.7 -4.0 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 -3.7 -3.8 -3.9 1.1 55.2 57.8 -5.5 -4.3 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -2.9 -1.2 -0.5 0.5 53.5 56.6 -2.7 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------