***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -1.9 -0.4 0.6 -0.2 40.2 47.2 -1.8 0.0 1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -0.4 0.6 0.2 47.6 50.2 -2.2 -0.4 0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 44.6 48.4 -0.8 1.1 2.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -3.2 -4.3 -1.6 0.4 46.2 52.2 -5.8 -3.7 -2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 0.1 41.4 49.3 -1.8 -0.7 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -2.4 -3.0 0.1 41.2 49.8 -3.4 -1.1 -0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -2.3 -0.3 0.6 0.0 45.8 49.6 -1.7 -0.1 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -4.6 -5.6 -2.7 0.0 42.3 48.3 -6.3 -5.2 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 0.0 43.0 47.7 -1.9 0.1 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -1.6 -2.1 0.0 42.4 48.4 -1.9 -0.9 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -1.5 -1.5 -0.1 41.4 48.0 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.2 -2.0 0.0 41.9 48.1 -3.2 -1.3 -0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -3.5 -1.5 -2.1 0.2 45.3 50.3 -2.3 -1.2 0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 -1.5 -0.3 -0.9 0.2 44.6 49.4 -0.9 -0.3 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -0.4 -1.1 -0.4 0.3 46.5 50.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 0.3 -1.3 -2.0 0.1 43.7 49.3 -2.0 -0.2 0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -2.7 -0.8 0.7 0.3 47.0 51.9 -2.1 -0.5 0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -1.7 -2.4 -2.4 0.2 43.7 49.7 -3.3 -2.1 -1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -2.0 -0.3 0.5 0.2 48.2 49.7 -1.8 -0.2 0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -4.3 -4.9 -3.3 0.4 46.4 52.1 -6.7 -4.9 -3.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -1.0 0.2 0.0 43.6 48.3 -2.3 -0.5 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -0.7 0.7 0.4 47.8 51.6 -2.1 -0.5 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -0.4 0.3 0.1 48.0 48.7 -1.4 -0.3 0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 -1.0 0.2 43.2 48.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 -1.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 42.5 48.0 -1.6 -0.3 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 -3.4 -1.9 -2.3 -0.2 39.7 47.6 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -2.5 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 42.2 47.5 -1.9 -0.1 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.6 -1.2 0.5 47.7 52.6 -3.5 -2.5 -0.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -4.1 -3.0 0.2 44.1 50.0 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 -2.3 -0.3 0.6 0.0 46.1 48.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------