***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 -1.3 -4.0 -1.6 -4.0 5.8 8.5 -0.1 0.8 2.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 -1.7 -2.2 -1.5 -3.5 10.7 13.1 -0.8 0.1 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -3.6 10.9 13.1 1.2 2.5 3.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 -5.8 -6.1 -3.0 -2.3 16.8 19.8 -3.8 -3.0 -2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 -1.6 -1.7 -2.5 -3.4 13.7 14.9 -0.9 0.4 1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 -3.0 -3.0 -4.4 -2.9 16.9 17.8 -1.2 -0.5 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 -1.6 -3.4 -1.5 -3.6 7.8 11.0 -0.7 0.6 1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 90 10 0 100 -6.8 -7.0 -4.2 -3.0 19.7 20.4 -5.1 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 -0.9 -1.0 -2.4 -3.2 14.6 16.1 0.2 0.7 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 -1.7 -1.8 -3.6 -3.0 18.9 19.7 -0.8 0.5 2.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 -2.7 -3.2 14.8 17.1 -1.1 0.1 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 -3.4 -3.6 -3.5 -3.4 15.3 16.8 -2.1 -0.4 1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 -3.3 -3.5 -3.4 -3.3 15.0 15.9 -1.7 -0.1 2.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 -2.3 -2.5 27.6 27.8 0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 -1.6 -1.7 -1.1 -2.1 18.8 21.2 -0.5 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 -1.2 -1.5 -3.2 -3.1 14.8 16.8 -0.3 0.9 2.7 30 Nis 06700G01 92 8 0 100 -2.1 -2.4 -1.4 -3.1 13.9 16.4 -0.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -2.4 -2.5 -3.8 -2.7 23.0 25.8 -2.3 -1.0 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 -1.1 -1.8 -1.5 -3.4 12.0 14.0 -0.7 0.7 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 -6.3 -6.1 -5.1 -3.2 22.5 23.5 -5.1 -3.9 -0.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 93 7 0 100 -1.1 -2.6 -1.6 -3.5 10.9 12.8 -0.3 0.6 2.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 -1.4 -1.6 -1.2 -2.9 14.8 18.5 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 93 7 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 -1.6 -3.3 13.8 15.7 -0.3 0.8 1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 -1.1 -1.4 -2.3 -2.7 22.7 24.1 -0.7 0.4 1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 -1.1 -2.6 -2.0 -3.8 8.3 9.9 -0.2 0.9 2.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -3.0 -3.4 -3.9 -3.9 9.9 11.0 -1.3 -0.2 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 -1.4 -4.2 -1.9 -4.1 6.4 8.4 -0.7 1.0 3.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 -2.6 -2.4 -2.4 -2.2 19.7 21.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -4.5 -2.5 28.4 29.7 -3.7 -1.8 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 -1.0 -3.7 -1.4 -3.7 7.7 10.8 -0.6 0.9 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------