***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 49.1 61.5 69.0 148.2 83.0 74.3 25.1 37.0 45.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 43.5 48.9 60.9 148.5 82.4 73.5 24.0 31.0 41.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 56.4 77.1 66.5 145.4 82.2 72.5 35.1 40.8 54.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 66.8 70.6 73.2 134.1 74.1 68.2 34.3 47.5 63.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 58.8 65.7 72.7 139.3 78.6 71.8 35.6 45.6 54.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 49.4 52.4 68.1 135.7 75.8 70.5 29.5 37.5 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 51.4 59.1 61.7 151.1 83.2 74.7 24.8 32.0 48.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 75.6 87.5 81.6 143.5 81.7 74.0 44.2 57.9 66.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 48.9 54.5 72.8 137.7 78.7 71.5 25.4 38.1 47.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 60.8 72.0 77.4 137.3 80.2 72.0 37.8 47.5 52.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 58.5 71.5 71.2 136.9 79.1 71.2 36.0 39.1 52.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 62.8 72.6 72.4 140.8 79.9 72.8 34.0 44.7 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 58.0 64.1 73.8 136.0 79.3 71.3 36.6 48.0 55.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 66.4 76.6 79.4 143.1 83.0 72.3 45.8 57.3 61.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 61.0 67.7 68.0 122.3 67.1 61.2 28.3 53.7 66.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 57.1 63.5 70.7 137.1 78.4 70.8 31.1 43.9 54.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 44.3 50.9 59.0 148.3 82.0 72.7 27.4 33.6 45.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 57.6 64.9 83.5 143.0 81.7 73.5 36.4 45.1 55.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 47.5 58.8 62.0 147.3 81.9 73.1 28.5 34.0 43.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 75.6 94.7 115.1 157.5 86.6 78.1 33.4 51.3 70.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 53.7 72.6 71.8 143.6 81.8 73.3 31.2 44.4 49.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 49.5 58.3 59.5 144.0 80.8 71.3 29.0 35.5 51.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 50.4 57.3 65.4 145.6 80.6 72.5 26.3 37.7 47.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 61.2 70.0 74.7 141.2 81.1 71.7 44.0 50.5 56.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 53.7 62.0 78.0 145.6 80.8 74.5 28.7 38.3 53.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 55.8 66.4 73.2 140.1 78.9 72.5 31.1 39.7 45.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 57.2 71.3 73.2 148.4 83.1 75.4 26.6 37.4 50.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 49.2 55.2 66.2 125.2 69.9 63.7 30.8 44.7 55.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 88.2 103.7 94.7 150.3 84.7 75.8 55.9 72.2 84.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 47.1 57.7 62.7 148.9 82.3 73.6 24.3 35.3 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------