***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.7 12.5 109.9 63.9 52.9 3.0 7.1 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.9 10.5 107.5 63.6 52.4 4.6 7.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.6 11.8 109.7 62.4 52.4 5.3 7.9 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.5 12.5 13.0 107.2 61.7 53.1 6.0 11.3 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.8 13.4 13.0 107.1 61.9 53.0 8.3 10.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.2 14.3 10.7 93.1 55.6 48.9 8.1 13.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.8 10.8 111.2 64.3 53.3 4.7 7.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.0 17.0 13.5 103.9 62.6 52.1 11.7 15.9 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.6 8.8 13.8 109.9 62.0 53.4 5.9 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.6 14.0 106.1 60.9 52.4 6.1 11.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.9 13.3 12.2 102.8 60.0 51.9 6.3 10.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.5 11.8 11.7 100.5 60.3 51.2 8.2 9.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.0 12.5 11.6 94.1 55.3 49.4 8.6 10.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.3 12.9 13.5 104.4 59.4 50.4 7.2 11.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.5 14.7 12.7 106.9 63.7 51.7 1.9 7.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 6.8 12.2 11.4 97.2 57.5 50.5 7.2 10.1 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.8 10.4 110.7 65.9 53.9 3.9 7.2 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.5 9.1 14.3 105.0 60.6 51.5 4.9 8.1 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.7 10.4 104.4 62.4 51.4 4.4 7.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 15.9 18.0 104.5 64.8 52.0 5.0 13.1 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.1 10.6 13.3 112.0 62.7 53.8 6.0 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.2 10.2 102.3 63.1 51.9 3.9 6.6 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.4 10.8 102.8 60.2 50.0 3.8 6.0 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.8 11.7 12.9 105.8 60.2 51.1 5.6 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.2 15.4 14.5 112.0 62.0 54.0 4.5 8.5 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.9 11.2 97.0 57.0 50.0 9.3 11.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.7 12.5 13.4 110.1 62.1 53.1 4.7 9.6 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.1 12.0 11.8 103.1 60.5 51.2 3.9 7.9 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.9 18.2 15.2 104.2 60.6 51.2 8.8 15.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.0 10.8 107.8 62.5 52.0 4.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------