***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 6.2 8.0 14.9 134.6 69.4 61.0 3.5 5.3 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.0 12.2 12.7 131.3 70.5 59.2 3.5 7.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 9.0 12.1 14.2 127.5 69.0 60.0 6.3 7.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 14.3 14.7 112.6 68.3 56.2 7.2 9.5 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.0 15.6 14.9 112.7 67.1 56.8 8.6 9.3 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.8 12.7 99.1 60.1 52.7 3.1 7.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.4 13.7 12.8 134.3 69.8 59.5 3.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.7 22.8 14.7 104.5 61.9 54.6 14.8 18.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.9 15.6 112.8 67.5 57.0 5.8 8.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.0 17.1 15.6 108.0 63.8 55.5 6.4 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.0 13.5 105.5 63.3 54.6 8.3 11.8 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.8 12.8 102.3 61.1 53.9 7.1 13.2 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.6 14.1 13.9 106.0 63.1 54.5 6.3 9.1 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.6 19.5 16.2 117.5 67.6 57.5 9.8 13.6 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.8 13.8 105.3 66.5 54.6 1.0 4.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.5 13.3 105.2 62.8 54.2 5.1 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.5 12.4 11.6 123.8 67.9 57.4 4.3 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 15.7 16.3 109.1 62.7 55.2 6.3 12.5 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.5 10.6 12.9 129.0 70.0 59.1 4.8 7.7 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 16.1 19.9 108.6 63.7 55.6 8.6 12.6 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.9 15.1 119.0 68.0 57.9 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.7 12.3 11.5 117.3 65.2 56.5 5.7 6.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.6 11.8 13.6 125.4 69.2 58.9 5.3 7.5 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.3 15.5 15.4 115.7 66.6 56.7 5.5 12.7 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.6 9.4 16.5 127.9 68.6 59.1 2.7 5.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.8 12.5 100.0 58.0 53.1 6.7 9.3 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.3 10.8 15.9 134.6 68.8 60.6 3.1 5.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.2 12.7 13.4 104.9 65.5 54.6 2.9 6.2 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.4 26.1 17.4 108.8 61.8 55.2 14.3 19.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.8 15.6 13.4 134.5 71.1 60.6 3.2 8.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------