***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.0 9.7 14.6 112.5 63.8 55.8 2.0 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 8.1 12.9 112.6 64.2 55.1 2.6 6.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.8 11.9 14.2 108.3 62.2 54.4 2.1 5.2 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.9 16.3 111.4 65.1 57.1 3.9 8.6 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.5 12.2 16.2 112.8 65.0 56.4 4.4 6.9 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.3 9.7 14.3 106.5 61.6 55.0 1.2 3.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.0 9.9 12.8 115.2 65.8 56.2 2.8 6.0 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.5 13.6 18.1 117.4 68.5 57.3 5.2 9.9 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.2 16.6 113.4 65.0 56.1 1.7 5.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.0 17.3 113.3 66.6 55.9 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.0 8.1 16.6 112.8 65.1 56.1 2.0 5.8 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.7 11.9 16.4 116.1 67.1 57.3 2.6 6.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 7.6 9.8 16.4 111.7 64.2 56.8 4.1 6.3 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.0 15.2 17.7 109.1 64.6 54.5 5.1 8.7 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.3 13.3 90.1 60.0 50.9 1.3 3.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.0 7.3 14.5 103.2 61.0 52.6 2.3 4.0 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.4 12.9 118.5 66.1 57.1 2.7 6.8 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.9 18.6 116.2 67.4 55.4 2.6 6.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.6 8.0 13.1 110.1 62.6 54.3 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 7.9 11.9 24.7 123.9 69.8 56.8 3.9 6.3 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.4 11.1 15.6 112.0 64.4 55.6 4.4 6.9 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.0 13.3 12.8 113.4 64.3 56.0 2.4 8.8 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.0 9.7 13.9 105.6 60.8 53.1 2.5 7.8 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.4 17.2 112.7 66.5 55.1 5.1 8.3 12.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 6.7 9.4 17.6 118.6 65.7 57.7 2.6 5.6 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.8 16.9 119.2 63.5 58.5 3.6 6.6 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.3 11.3 15.9 117.2 65.4 57.0 3.7 5.8 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.8 7.5 13.4 95.1 60.3 51.7 0.4 4.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 19.3 21.5 121.9 69.5 56.6 4.3 10.0 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.2 6.5 12.9 109.8 63.2 54.5 1.9 5.8 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------