***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 15.0 29.2 27.0 241.9 90.4 80.4 3.5 6.2 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 13.1 24.5 24.9 244.2 90.7 78.6 1.8 3.9 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 18.6 30.2 26.2 245.6 90.8 80.2 3.6 6.8 17.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 21.2 29.3 29.2 197.9 84.3 75.6 5.4 9.6 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 19.9 33.1 28.6 229.4 90.8 81.2 2.0 9.8 18.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 11.8 27.1 30.4 243.9 92.8 85.2 3.3 6.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 13.3 24.5 25.3 241.4 90.8 78.1 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 19.7 36.7 35.3 244.9 93.4 83.1 6.5 8.0 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 20.9 29.0 26.7 226.8 90.5 81.1 1.6 4.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 18.7 34.1 30.5 227.0 91.7 81.0 3.7 7.7 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 19.7 41.9 28.9 228.7 91.9 81.2 3.2 9.0 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 24.2 51.2 31.5 240.0 92.5 82.5 6.7 9.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 18.2 34.5 31.9 225.2 90.9 83.0 4.6 9.5 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 19.6 36.9 32.0 255.3 93.4 80.7 4.0 10.2 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 31.5 45.8 28.2 178.3 82.2 71.9 3.9 12.5 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 19.8 36.0 31.5 238.8 92.2 83.6 3.8 7.6 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 11.1 25.8 24.1 237.5 90.6 78.9 1.9 6.0 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 19.1 42.1 34.3 249.1 94.1 82.6 6.3 10.1 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 18.3 31.3 25.5 251.0 91.4 79.3 1.5 6.9 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 27.5 51.3 52.4 300.2 95.6 87.7 3.8 7.5 18.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 21.9 30.6 27.9 240.7 91.7 82.4 2.7 7.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 11.5 28.7 25.0 243.4 91.0 80.0 1.3 7.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 16.1 27.4 27.0 261.1 92.5 79.7 1.5 5.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 18.9 32.5 29.2 241.8 92.7 80.1 4.8 9.0 11.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 17.9 28.0 29.4 228.2 89.9 80.9 3.0 9.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 16.0 32.6 32.6 232.5 92.3 84.9 3.7 8.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 16.9 28.1 28.0 237.6 90.6 80.7 3.3 5.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 23.3 33.4 27.6 190.9 83.8 74.9 4.8 10.4 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 24.6 59.6 40.6 276.3 95.2 84.9 6.4 13.3 20.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 16.3 26.1 25.6 247.0 90.7 78.9 2.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------