***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.6 5.0 4.6 -1.1 31.0 35.3 5.1 5.8 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 4.0 4.3 4.4 -1.4 27.9 33.4 4.4 5.2 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 5.3 5.8 4.9 -1.2 29.9 34.8 6.0 6.7 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -0.2 0.3 1.9 -1.0 32.7 36.6 0.3 1.0 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 5.2 5.2 3.2 -1.1 30.3 35.5 5.4 6.5 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.7 4.6 2.8 -0.9 33.1 38.3 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.8 4.2 4.4 -1.3 28.3 33.6 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -1.3 -0.9 2.5 -1.4 26.5 32.9 -0.1 0.8 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 5.6 6.1 4.1 -1.1 31.5 36.0 6.1 7.1 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 4.8 5.4 3.2 -1.4 29.0 34.2 5.6 6.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 5.2 5.1 3.4 -1.2 29.1 35.4 5.3 6.6 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 5.1 5.3 3.0 -1.2 28.1 34.5 6.0 6.5 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.1 4.8 3.1 -1.3 29.0 34.3 5.2 6.3 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.6 4.1 -1.5 30.7 33.4 5.8 6.2 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.7 3.5 -0.5 35.8 41.3 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 5.7 5.6 3.1 -1.1 29.8 35.7 6.0 7.0 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 3.4 3.5 4.2 -1.4 26.4 32.6 3.7 4.7 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.0 3.3 3.0 -1.5 30.2 33.6 3.4 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 4.5 4.6 4.5 -1.4 28.3 33.6 4.9 5.8 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 1.7 2.6 1.5 -1.6 25.9 31.0 2.9 3.5 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.3 5.6 4.6 -1.1 31.3 35.6 5.6 6.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.9 3.9 4.2 -1.5 26.0 32.4 4.2 5.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 4.5 4.7 4.8 -1.3 29.2 34.3 5.1 5.6 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.4 6.0 4.1 -1.4 30.1 34.2 6.0 6.8 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.3 4.5 3.4 -1.1 31.2 35.4 4.7 5.4 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.7 4.8 2.6 -1.2 27.4 33.2 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.3 5.8 4.2 -1.1 31.7 35.1 5.9 6.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.9 2.7 -0.8 34.5 38.6 4.9 5.8 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 2.2 2.1 2.4 -1.6 28.3 32.3 3.0 3.6 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 4.3 4.2 4.5 -1.3 28.8 33.9 4.6 5.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------