***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.9 4.5 0.0 49.0 48.5 2.5 4.0 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.6 2.7 4.3 -0.2 44.7 47.0 1.9 3.7 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.1 4.9 -0.1 47.6 48.0 3.0 5.4 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -2.3 -0.2 2.0 0.0 51.1 48.4 -1.1 -0.3 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.8 3.0 -0.1 49.4 48.4 3.0 4.9 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.3 2.8 0.2 50.9 50.9 2.5 4.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.7 4.4 -0.2 46.4 47.3 1.7 3.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.5 0.2 2.8 -0.1 51.6 49.4 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 3.9 0.0 51.6 49.0 3.1 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.6 3.4 0.0 53.1 49.7 2.8 4.9 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.0 2.9 -0.2 48.2 48.3 3.1 5.2 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.8 2.9 -0.1 48.6 48.6 2.8 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.8 4.9 2.4 -0.3 47.3 47.9 3.4 5.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.2 4.3 -0.1 50.5 47.7 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.7 3.1 0.3 51.5 50.6 3.4 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.1 2.6 -0.2 47.4 47.9 3.8 5.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.8 4.4 -0.2 44.6 46.7 1.7 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.5 3.5 3.4 0.1 53.2 50.0 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.5 4.5 -0.2 44.6 46.8 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.6 2.5 1.8 -0.2 49.2 49.0 0.8 2.6 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.6 4.4 0.0 50.7 49.2 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.5 2.8 4.3 -0.3 41.7 45.9 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.6 4.9 -0.2 46.1 46.8 3.0 4.2 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.8 4.2 0.0 50.9 48.5 3.6 5.6 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.1 4.2 3.1 -0.1 49.9 48.7 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 3.6 2.2 -0.4 43.7 46.5 3.0 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.3 4.1 0.0 50.2 48.8 3.1 5.3 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.7 4.6 2.6 0.2 52.2 49.8 3.6 4.5 6.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.5 2.9 0.0 51.1 49.6 0.4 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.2 4.4 -0.2 45.8 47.3 2.1 4.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------