***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 3.2 2.8 3.6 -2.5 24.2 28.8 3.7 5.7 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.9 3.5 -2.6 22.9 28.1 3.5 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.4 3.2 4.0 -2.5 25.6 30.2 3.9 6.3 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 1.0 -2.3 26.6 29.6 -0.3 2.7 3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 3.0 2.8 2.4 -2.4 26.5 30.5 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.9 3.8 1.8 -2.2 26.9 31.5 4.2 7.0 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 1.4 1.2 3.5 -2.6 21.1 27.9 3.3 4.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -2.1 -2.0 1.5 -2.7 25.5 28.1 -1.0 1.3 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 3.9 3.5 3.2 -2.5 27.1 30.8 5.0 7.1 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.2 3.3 2.2 -2.7 26.2 29.8 4.1 5.8 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.7 -2.4 27.2 30.9 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 3.2 3.6 2.2 -2.4 26.6 29.9 4.2 7.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.3 3.4 2.5 -2.4 26.1 30.7 4.3 6.6 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 4.0 3.2 3.2 -2.8 26.6 30.2 3.6 7.0 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.8 3.4 2.9 -1.6 28.1 31.8 4.4 6.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.9 3.5 2.3 -2.3 26.8 31.3 4.7 7.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 1.2 1.5 3.1 -2.8 21.1 26.8 2.9 4.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 1.8 2.4 1.9 -2.8 25.8 29.6 3.3 4.1 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.0 2.1 3.6 -2.7 24.1 28.9 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -2.9 22.3 26.6 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.4 3.7 -2.5 26.6 30.5 4.3 6.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 2.2 1.8 3.2 -2.9 21.9 26.8 3.5 5.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.5 2.9 3.8 -2.6 25.9 29.9 3.8 5.1 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.3 3.5 3.2 -2.7 27.0 30.4 3.9 7.1 9.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 2.1 2.9 2.5 -2.6 24.4 28.1 3.9 5.7 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 76 24 0 100 3.7 4.2 1.9 -2.3 22.7 27.9 5.0 5.9 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 2.5 3.5 3.2 -2.6 23.3 28.2 4.2 5.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.9 3.3 1.9 -2.0 27.3 31.5 4.9 6.2 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 1.2 1.3 1.3 -3.0 23.7 28.1 1.6 3.9 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 1.8 2.1 3.6 -2.6 23.1 28.6 3.5 5.0 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------