***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 3.1 4.3 4.8 -2.9 20.1 22.0 6.2 7.2 9.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 2.7 2.5 4.5 -3.4 15.9 17.9 5.6 7.0 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.9 -3.3 19.3 20.8 6.9 9.2 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -0.6 -0.1 2.0 -2.4 25.7 26.9 0.7 2.4 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 5.2 5.4 3.8 -2.7 22.2 25.7 6.1 8.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 4.6 5.2 2.8 -2.8 21.3 24.7 6.1 7.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 3.0 2.8 4.5 -3.3 16.3 18.7 5.1 6.8 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 -1.5 -1.5 2.0 -3.9 18.3 19.5 0.6 1.3 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 88 12 0 100 5.2 5.1 4.5 -2.9 20.8 24.2 6.7 9.4 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 5.0 4.6 2.9 -3.7 19.4 21.3 6.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 5.4 4.9 4.2 -2.9 22.3 24.8 6.3 8.4 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 5.7 5.2 3.0 -3.2 20.4 21.9 6.5 8.6 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 6.0 5.6 4.0 -3.3 21.6 23.1 6.2 8.3 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 4.8 5.0 3.7 -4.1 18.8 19.7 7.2 8.5 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 5.2 5.6 4.6 -1.6 28.3 30.0 6.3 7.1 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 6.3 5.9 3.7 -2.9 22.5 25.0 6.6 9.1 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 2.8 2.6 3.9 -3.5 15.5 16.9 4.5 6.7 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 2.9 3.0 2.2 -4.1 18.6 19.8 4.2 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 3.3 3.1 4.6 -3.4 16.5 18.4 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 1.5 1.3 0.8 -4.3 17.2 18.0 2.5 4.6 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 88 12 0 100 4.5 4.6 5.1 -3.0 20.1 23.0 6.7 8.7 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 96 4 0 100 3.0 2.9 4.1 -3.5 17.3 17.4 5.5 6.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 3.8 3.7 4.7 -3.4 18.2 19.7 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 4.9 5.2 3.9 -3.9 18.9 19.9 7.4 9.5 10.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 3.7 4.8 4.1 -2.8 22.7 23.9 5.8 7.5 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 5.5 5.4 2.9 -3.0 20.3 22.0 6.6 7.8 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 4.2 4.1 4.5 -3.0 21.1 22.6 6.5 8.5 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 4.9 5.4 3.2 -2.2 26.2 27.6 6.4 7.3 7.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.6 -4.2 17.9 19.0 2.8 5.7 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 3.3 3.3 4.7 -3.3 17.8 19.3 5.9 7.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------