***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 -3.2 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 42.7 47.5 -1.7 -1.0 0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -1.8 -1.3 -0.3 43.2 46.4 -2.3 -1.4 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 -1.7 -0.4 -1.4 -0.5 40.2 44.9 -0.6 0.1 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -7.3 -6.2 -4.2 -0.6 41.4 44.7 -6.8 -5.8 -3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 -3.6 -2.3 -3.8 -0.7 39.6 44.2 -2.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -4.1 -2.7 -5.6 -0.7 37.9 44.6 -3.3 -2.6 -0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -3.4 -1.9 -1.0 -0.1 44.7 47.8 -2.7 -1.4 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -7.9 -6.9 -5.3 -0.7 38.6 44.8 -7.2 -6.3 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 -3.0 -1.7 -3.4 -0.7 38.3 44.2 -1.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 -3.4 -2.0 -4.7 -0.7 38.8 44.6 -2.1 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -3.6 -2.0 -4.5 -0.9 37.5 43.3 -2.5 -1.3 0.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -3.7 -3.2 -5.0 -0.9 37.5 43.6 -3.4 -2.7 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -4.5 -1.9 -5.3 -0.9 39.0 43.1 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 -2.2 -1.2 -3.5 -0.6 40.1 44.2 -1.4 -0.7 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 -3.2 -2.2 -2.8 -0.3 42.0 45.9 -2.6 -1.5 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 -3.1 -1.7 -5.0 -0.9 37.7 42.8 -2.6 -0.7 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 41.9 46.8 -2.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -4.6 -3.2 -5.4 -0.7 40.9 44.7 -4.3 -2.8 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -3.1 -1.3 -1.5 -0.4 42.1 44.9 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -7.3 -5.6 -6.1 -0.5 44.2 46.9 -6.5 -5.1 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -3.4 -1.7 -2.2 -0.5 39.4 45.2 -2.1 -1.4 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 -3.2 -1.9 -1.7 -0.5 39.3 44.4 -2.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -1.4 -1.9 -0.6 40.1 43.4 -1.8 -0.9 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -2.9 -1.8 -3.9 -0.7 38.3 43.1 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 -3.5 -1.8 -2.5 -0.4 42.1 46.5 -2.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 -3.8 -2.4 -5.4 -1.1 36.4 41.7 -2.5 -1.3 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 -3.6 -1.5 -1.5 -0.3 43.4 47.8 -2.9 -0.9 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 -4.6 -3.0 -4.1 -0.5 40.8 44.9 -3.9 -2.3 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -5.9 -4.6 -5.5 -0.5 43.1 46.0 -5.0 -4.2 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -1.6 -1.2 -0.3 43.1 46.4 -2.0 -1.0 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------