***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 0.0 0.2 0.7 -1.4 34.2 35.4 0.2 1.1 3.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.1 -2.0 30.4 30.2 -0.5 0.9 2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.3 1.1 0.5 -1.6 33.7 34.4 1.1 2.9 3.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -4.5 -3.9 -1.8 -1.2 30.2 33.7 -3.9 -2.7 -1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -0.9 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 33.5 36.7 -0.3 0.8 2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 -2.5 -1.0 33.3 36.7 -0.7 -0.1 1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 -1.9 31.1 31.1 -0.4 0.8 2.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -5.6 -5.7 -3.3 -1.9 28.2 30.3 -5.6 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 1.7 0.8 -0.5 -1.0 37.9 38.8 0.6 1.4 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -0.4 -0.5 -2.5 -1.7 31.4 32.8 -0.4 0.8 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 1.1 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 35.9 37.9 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 0.7 -1.6 -1.7 -1.2 34.4 36.2 -1.9 0.0 1.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 1.0 -0.9 -1.3 -0.8 37.9 39.0 -1.3 0.5 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 0.5 0.3 -2.0 -2.0 30.7 32.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 1.2 0.4 0.7 -0.4 42.5 43.2 -0.2 0.8 2.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 1.6 0.2 -1.3 -1.0 35.4 37.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -0.6 -2.2 27.7 27.3 -0.6 0.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 -2.4 -2.2 -3.5 -2.1 27.1 29.8 -1.7 -0.9 0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -1.9 31.2 31.1 -0.2 0.9 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 -5.8 -6.1 -4.6 -2.5 24.7 27.9 -4.2 -3.4 -1.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 1.8 0.2 0.5 -1.1 37.2 37.7 0.0 1.2 2.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 -0.7 -0.9 -0.5 -2.2 29.2 28.6 -0.8 0.5 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -1.8 32.7 32.5 0.1 1.1 1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -0.2 -0.5 -1.6 -1.7 31.8 33.0 -0.5 0.6 1.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 -0.2 0.1 0.3 -1.3 32.8 35.4 0.1 1.3 2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -1.3 -0.9 -1.4 -1.0 36.0 38.2 -1.4 0.2 2.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 -0.4 0.0 0.6 -1.4 35.0 36.3 -0.2 0.9 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 0.3 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 34.8 36.8 -0.9 -0.2 0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -4.6 -2.4 25.8 28.2 -3.7 -1.9 0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -0.5 -0.2 0.3 -1.8 31.1 31.8 0.1 1.1 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------