***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 42.6 44.1 52.5 105.9 61.1 55.0 26.0 39.2 45.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 26.5 33.2 48.9 109.3 60.7 53.7 24.6 32.3 36.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 47.2 52.4 54.3 111.3 63.9 57.0 33.7 41.2 54.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 52.8 69.5 66.4 115.7 68.3 59.0 34.9 44.7 63.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 49.8 53.4 63.8 117.3 69.1 60.5 39.8 45.9 52.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 47.4 49.2 62.7 121.6 69.8 63.3 27.9 36.5 46.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 24.7 38.1 47.2 107.3 58.6 53.2 25.5 32.0 47.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 63.2 74.4 70.1 119.0 68.2 61.9 45.7 57.5 70.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 41.1 50.1 64.0 117.9 70.5 60.3 27.6 38.1 47.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 51.7 55.9 69.0 120.7 70.6 62.3 40.7 47.5 53.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 54.8 59.3 66.1 121.9 70.7 63.4 36.8 40.9 52.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 62.1 68.8 65.3 119.1 68.9 62.5 34.6 45.9 59.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 58.8 50.9 64.5 113.7 63.6 60.0 35.1 46.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 62.5 64.4 66.4 113.2 65.2 56.9 46.1 58.9 64.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 32.1 66.9 66.6 117.7 69.1 58.2 26.2 45.0 65.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 54.8 50.9 62.2 114.7 65.8 59.9 33.7 42.9 51.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 25.9 40.3 46.2 106.2 57.2 52.2 26.9 35.2 45.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 50.0 55.2 68.9 116.5 67.3 60.2 38.5 46.3 55.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 29.6 43.2 50.9 110.6 61.8 54.2 27.5 39.8 46.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 56.8 62.5 81.9 109.4 62.8 56.9 40.0 50.2 67.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 45.2 50.2 59.2 113.4 66.1 58.4 31.7 42.2 50.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 27.3 49.8 49.5 108.3 58.9 52.5 29.2 36.5 52.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 27.3 44.9 54.6 111.9 63.6 55.2 26.2 36.1 49.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 55.0 56.3 63.1 114.8 66.2 58.4 42.7 50.6 56.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 41.8 49.9 60.5 108.3 62.7 56.3 29.4 37.8 52.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 44.5 45.7 62.1 108.2 60.8 56.2 29.1 39.7 46.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 44.8 47.0 54.6 105.4 59.9 54.9 27.7 38.8 50.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 58.7 55.3 65.1 119.2 70.2 60.0 30.5 38.7 54.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 79.7 86.8 72.2 113.2 65.4 58.8 60.2 76.8 87.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 27.3 40.3 49.8 109.0 61.2 54.3 24.3 35.7 44.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------