***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.2 10.0 88.4 54.7 47.9 4.6 7.9 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 6.9 8.8 88.2 55.9 47.5 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.6 9.6 87.4 54.1 47.5 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.7 10.4 85.8 56.1 48.2 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.8 11.1 91.4 56.7 50.0 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.1 13.9 9.8 85.1 54.3 46.4 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.5 7.9 8.8 88.7 57.0 47.2 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.5 12.6 95.0 59.6 50.4 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.9 11.7 93.4 56.8 50.1 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 14.0 12.8 97.3 58.9 51.1 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.6 10.9 90.6 58.0 49.9 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.4 10.8 88.8 58.5 49.0 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.7 13.6 10.5 84.1 55.0 46.4 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.2 11.8 87.4 53.4 46.8 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.7 9.7 81.3 57.6 45.9 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.7 10.1 85.0 55.5 47.4 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 9.7 8.4 84.7 56.4 47.1 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.9 13.7 100.5 58.0 51.5 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.6 9.0 87.6 53.7 47.2 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.6 15.8 17.2 99.6 60.7 50.3 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.7 10.9 92.4 56.1 49.6 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.8 8.7 83.5 53.5 46.2 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.3 9.6 87.4 52.2 46.9 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.6 11.8 93.9 56.3 49.5 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.2 11.5 92.1 57.9 49.3 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 13.6 10.3 80.7 53.0 45.8 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.7 10.7 89.6 56.1 48.5 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.7 10.8 9.6 82.5 55.0 46.9 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.3 21.1 14.8 100.6 59.2 51.1 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.7 8.1 9.1 88.1 56.7 47.2 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------