***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.6 12.1 90.9 55.0 48.5 3.4 5.1 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.7 11.2 94.9 56.5 48.5 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.8 12.2 94.2 58.2 49.5 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.1 13.1 13.7 96.4 58.4 49.8 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 6.1 12.0 14.1 100.3 60.7 51.6 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.7 14.3 116.0 66.8 52.1 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.9 7.3 10.6 90.1 55.0 47.2 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 12.9 24.2 16.3 112.4 64.8 52.5 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.5 14.0 95.5 57.2 50.6 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.8 15.1 102.2 60.3 51.3 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 6.6 13.4 14.4 108.5 64.0 52.3 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 6.8 16.1 15.3 116.6 67.3 53.0 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.9 12.9 15.0 111.9 65.9 51.8 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.5 15.8 14.5 94.7 56.5 49.8 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.8 13.1 96.6 60.9 48.4 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 4.7 12.0 14.3 111.0 66.4 51.8 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.7 10.2 90.5 55.5 47.6 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 15.0 15.1 97.5 59.8 50.1 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.8 11.6 97.2 57.5 49.4 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.5 13.4 20.7 106.1 63.2 51.8 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.0 9.1 13.0 92.6 57.7 50.2 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.5 11.2 97.9 58.3 50.0 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.0 8.3 11.9 94.3 56.8 49.2 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.6 17.5 13.5 93.5 57.4 49.5 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.8 6.8 13.3 90.1 55.7 49.4 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.9 15.0 112.8 65.1 52.0 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.1 12.4 89.5 53.7 48.3 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.7 13.6 103.8 62.5 50.3 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.8 26.7 16.5 99.6 60.8 50.9 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.6 9.3 11.4 93.6 55.7 48.1 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------