***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.4 12.4 90.4 55.6 46.9 4.3 7.9 12.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.7 11.7 95.7 56.7 48.7 2.7 8.5 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.7 15.2 13.8 101.3 60.0 49.2 2.4 6.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.9 16.1 97.0 57.0 46.4 4.6 7.7 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.6 12.2 16.8 106.6 59.4 50.4 3.9 11.3 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.4 9.2 15.0 100.9 62.2 49.1 1.0 5.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.8 10.7 91.0 53.3 47.9 3.9 7.6 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.2 15.5 16.8 99.6 59.9 47.3 4.9 9.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.2 16.2 105.3 61.5 49.0 2.1 7.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.8 16.9 103.7 61.9 48.4 3.2 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.5 17.4 106.9 61.5 50.4 1.9 6.1 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.4 12.9 16.4 101.8 60.5 48.3 1.9 7.8 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.2 6.5 14.6 89.0 53.6 44.3 3.4 6.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.2 17.2 103.5 63.1 48.9 4.2 12.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.7 6.0 15.4 90.5 57.9 43.7 0.9 4.0 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.5 7.2 14.7 94.1 56.3 45.7 2.3 5.8 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.7 11.1 96.4 57.9 49.0 4.3 7.9 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.8 16.9 100.7 60.2 48.0 2.8 8.0 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.2 12.5 98.9 58.8 48.7 3.0 7.4 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.5 20.0 93.8 57.1 46.5 3.7 6.7 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.6 14.4 98.1 57.7 46.3 5.4 10.0 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.4 12.3 100.6 59.5 49.4 2.4 9.9 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.3 14.3 106.0 63.3 50.3 2.6 6.1 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.8 14.1 16.2 103.6 62.7 49.0 4.5 11.3 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.3 15.2 96.7 56.4 48.6 2.1 6.8 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.7 10.7 15.4 92.8 56.9 46.9 2.3 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.8 12.9 89.7 54.6 47.1 5.0 5.8 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.7 7.0 15.6 96.9 59.6 46.4 0.4 4.0 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.0 17.8 98.0 59.1 47.9 7.1 9.6 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.9 12.0 95.1 56.3 48.9 4.5 6.4 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------