***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 11.1 13.1 17.9 160.3 74.7 71.6 3.5 5.4 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.7 14.6 17.3 159.4 75.8 69.5 1.8 4.9 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 15.3 18.3 18.6 167.3 77.2 72.9 4.0 6.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 22.5 27.2 26.1 181.2 83.2 76.5 6.1 12.1 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 18.6 21.4 21.9 175.9 78.7 76.9 2.3 8.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 16.2 19.4 23.6 183.7 84.3 79.2 2.7 6.8 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.3 11.8 17.0 162.7 76.5 69.7 3.1 5.9 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 20.3 27.3 24.4 171.0 81.2 75.2 7.3 10.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 15.6 22.8 22.1 188.2 83.2 78.6 2.0 4.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 19.3 23.1 24.2 187.4 84.2 78.6 3.3 7.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 20.5 27.4 23.4 185.1 82.0 78.6 3.7 7.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 21.1 27.4 22.9 169.3 78.7 74.2 8.0 10.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 13.9 18.8 24.4 169.1 81.0 74.9 4.9 7.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 16.4 20.0 22.9 172.8 78.0 74.5 3.7 8.4 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 31.5 48.9 28.3 202.7 85.1 78.7 3.5 12.2 21.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 17.2 20.1 23.1 166.9 79.2 74.9 3.6 9.4 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 9.5 12.2 16.5 153.3 76.0 66.6 1.7 4.8 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 17.9 23.3 23.2 175.9 81.8 76.3 6.3 8.2 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 13.8 15.3 17.9 158.7 75.6 69.9 1.2 6.6 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 21.0 25.3 24.0 140.7 74.0 69.1 6.7 14.6 24.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 18.5 24.7 20.9 178.5 81.2 76.2 4.0 7.8 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.4 17.4 148.6 74.6 66.0 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 11.7 14.0 18.8 160.7 76.2 70.9 2.8 6.3 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.2 24.8 21.6 175.7 80.3 75.2 3.5 9.3 12.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 14.3 15.4 20.5 158.6 76.4 72.7 3.0 7.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.6 21.4 145.3 75.4 68.5 3.7 7.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.2 15.6 18.7 159.4 76.2 71.7 2.3 5.4 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 21.7 30.5 26.3 191.3 84.1 77.7 6.0 10.0 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.4 29.3 23.1 161.1 78.7 73.4 8.2 12.9 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 12.1 15.3 17.4 163.1 76.7 70.6 3.0 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------