***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 4.7 4.3 3.7 -2.1 17.8 27.3 5.0 6.0 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 4.1 4.1 3.8 -2.0 22.9 29.1 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 5.4 5.0 4.0 -2.2 19.5 27.5 5.9 7.0 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -2.6 17.9 23.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 5.0 4.7 2.0 -2.4 19.3 24.4 5.6 6.6 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 4.4 4.0 1.5 -2.4 16.7 24.0 5.1 5.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.9 3.7 3.8 -1.9 22.1 29.2 4.5 5.2 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -1.2 -1.8 1.9 -2.2 18.5 25.8 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 5.8 5.4 3.0 -2.3 21.3 26.2 6.1 7.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.8 4.6 2.4 -2.3 19.1 25.7 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 5.2 4.6 2.2 -2.5 17.7 23.6 5.7 6.9 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 5.0 4.5 2.1 -2.3 17.6 24.8 6.3 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 5.0 4.5 2.2 -2.4 17.4 23.8 5.3 6.7 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 5.5 5.3 3.6 -2.2 20.3 27.6 5.8 6.6 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 3.6 3.4 1.6 -2.5 18.0 23.7 4.6 5.5 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 5.3 4.8 1.8 -2.5 17.2 22.9 6.0 7.2 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 3.2 3.5 3.7 -1.9 22.9 29.3 4.1 4.5 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.5 2.4 -2.3 18.1 26.2 3.4 4.3 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 4.6 4.4 3.9 -2.0 22.7 28.8 4.8 6.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 2.0 1.8 1.4 -2.0 19.2 27.8 3.1 3.6 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 5.3 4.8 3.5 -2.3 18.5 26.1 5.6 7.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.9 3.6 3.7 -2.0 22.9 28.3 4.5 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 4.6 4.4 4.1 -2.0 22.1 28.7 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 5.6 5.4 3.4 -2.2 19.3 26.9 6.1 7.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 4.3 4.0 2.4 -2.3 17.7 25.3 4.6 5.7 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 4.3 3.8 1.9 -2.0 18.3 25.5 5.6 6.0 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 72 28 0 100 5.4 5.1 3.3 -2.1 18.0 26.7 5.9 6.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 3.7 4.1 0.9 -2.6 17.9 23.2 5.0 5.8 6.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 2.3 1.8 2.1 -2.1 18.7 26.7 3.1 3.9 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 4.3 4.2 3.8 -2.0 21.5 28.6 4.6 5.8 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------