***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.3 3.8 -0.2 48.8 49.0 1.9 3.4 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.4 3.7 -0.2 51.7 49.8 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.8 4.3 0.0 53.1 50.1 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 -1.2 0.2 1.0 -0.3 47.8 48.2 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.8 2.3 -0.2 49.5 49.1 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.3 3.0 1.8 -0.4 44.8 47.3 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.3 2.9 3.7 -0.2 51.2 49.4 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.5 -0.9 2.3 -0.1 49.7 49.2 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.9 4.5 3.3 0.0 52.6 49.9 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.1 2.8 0.0 51.7 49.6 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 3.7 2.3 -0.2 47.8 48.6 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 4.1 2.3 -0.2 47.9 48.2 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.7 1.8 -0.5 43.2 46.7 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.6 4.0 0.1 53.3 50.3 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.2 1.8 -0.3 47.5 48.2 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.6 1.9 -0.3 45.9 47.7 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.1 3.8 -0.1 51.5 50.5 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 0.9 1.8 3.0 0.1 50.2 49.6 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.9 -0.1 52.4 50.0 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.5 0.5 1.6 0.0 47.3 49.0 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.0 3.7 0.0 52.6 50.0 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.3 3.8 0.0 51.8 50.7 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.6 4.3 0.0 53.5 50.2 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.8 3.8 0.1 51.6 50.1 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.6 2.3 -0.2 49.8 48.5 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.4 1.6 -0.6 39.6 45.7 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.0 4.5 3.3 -0.2 48.7 48.5 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.8 4.1 1.4 -0.3 48.2 48.4 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -0.5 0.9 2.6 0.0 49.3 49.3 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.2 3.7 -0.2 51.5 49.5 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------