***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.4 2.9 3.6 -1.2 37.9 42.5 2.4 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.1 3.6 -1.1 39.4 43.1 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.9 -1.2 38.7 42.4 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 -2.6 -0.9 0.6 -1.5 34.6 39.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.2 3.8 1.9 -1.4 36.2 41.4 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.2 1.8 -1.2 36.0 42.3 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.8 3.6 -1.1 39.1 43.2 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -1.7 -1.4 2.0 -1.2 38.0 41.9 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.5 4.1 2.8 -1.3 37.8 41.8 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.3 3.8 2.4 -1.2 38.0 41.9 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.3 4.0 2.0 -1.4 36.2 41.0 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.3 3.0 2.0 -1.2 37.2 41.5 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.0 3.9 1.8 -1.2 35.8 41.9 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 2.9 4.2 3.5 -1.2 40.5 42.5 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.2 3.6 1.4 -1.6 30.9 38.8 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.5 3.9 1.7 -1.4 34.4 41.1 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 1.4 2.9 3.7 -1.0 41.4 43.6 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.0 2.6 2.6 -1.2 39.5 41.8 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.2 3.8 -1.2 39.8 42.8 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 0.2 2.1 1.5 -1.0 39.3 43.0 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 2.6 3.9 3.4 -1.3 37.3 42.1 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.7 2.9 3.6 -1.1 39.4 42.6 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.1 4.1 -1.2 41.6 42.7 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.7 3.5 3.3 -1.3 39.7 41.8 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.0 2.1 -1.3 37.1 41.6 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.5 1.8 -1.1 34.6 43.0 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.8 3.2 -1.2 37.4 42.2 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.5 1.0 -1.6 32.8 39.6 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 -0.4 1.4 2.3 -1.1 39.2 41.9 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.0 3.6 -1.1 37.6 42.8 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------