***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.1 -2.2 29.0 33.1 4.6 6.4 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.6 3.3 4.4 -1.8 30.6 35.5 3.7 5.2 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.7 4.0 4.5 -2.2 29.4 34.6 4.4 7.0 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -0.8 -1.6 0.8 -2.6 27.2 31.4 0.0 3.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.6 2.4 -2.5 29.1 32.0 5.1 7.0 8.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 2.9 4.2 1.7 -2.6 27.8 30.8 4.8 6.8 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.3 4.3 -1.9 30.9 34.7 3.5 4.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -1.2 -0.2 2.4 -2.1 30.8 34.6 0.0 1.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.0 4.5 3.4 -2.4 30.2 33.0 5.3 7.9 9.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 3.9 2.8 -2.3 31.3 34.0 4.4 6.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.0 2.7 -2.7 27.7 31.2 4.8 7.3 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.3 4.1 2.5 -2.4 28.3 32.4 5.0 8.1 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.7 4.1 2.5 -2.9 25.2 29.4 4.9 7.2 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.9 4.0 4.1 -2.1 33.1 36.2 4.0 7.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.1 -2.7 24.5 29.3 4.5 5.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.0 4.4 2.2 -2.8 26.7 29.8 5.4 7.7 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.5 2.8 4.3 -1.7 30.9 36.0 2.8 4.9 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.0 3.4 2.8 -2.2 32.5 35.1 3.5 5.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.9 3.6 4.5 -1.9 30.4 35.9 3.8 5.4 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.0 1.8 -1.8 31.7 36.1 2.4 5.6 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.4 4.6 4.0 -2.4 29.2 33.2 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.1 4.1 4.4 -1.8 31.2 36.2 4.2 5.2 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.4 3.7 4.6 -2.0 29.4 36.1 3.9 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.0 5.1 4.0 -2.2 32.3 35.3 5.2 7.7 9.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.2 4.6 2.8 -2.4 29.2 32.0 4.7 5.4 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 4.4 4.8 2.2 -2.3 27.2 31.0 5.7 6.4 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.7 -2.3 29.1 32.2 4.8 6.4 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.4 4.3 1.5 -2.7 26.5 30.9 5.0 6.6 8.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.2 2.0 2.4 -2.1 33.3 35.4 2.0 5.0 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.4 4.3 -2.0 29.9 34.7 3.8 5.5 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------