***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 3.4 2.6 3.4 -4.8 11.0 13.2 5.3 8.1 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 3.3 2.6 3.4 -4.8 12.9 14.0 5.7 7.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 4.5 2.9 3.4 -5.2 10.8 12.8 7.1 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 99 1 0 100 -0.8 -4.2 -1.2 -6.0 5.6 7.3 1.2 2.7 3.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 4.6 3.5 1.3 -5.7 8.6 10.2 6.2 9.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 4.3 3.6 0.8 -5.2 11.3 13.2 6.4 8.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 3.7 3.2 3.5 -4.6 13.9 14.9 4.7 7.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 -1.2 -2.5 1.0 -5.3 9.7 13.3 0.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 4.9 3.4 2.4 -5.4 9.7 11.2 7.1 9.9 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 98 2 0 100 4.8 3.1 1.5 -5.7 9.4 12.3 7.0 8.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 4.5 2.1 2.0 -5.7 9.2 11.2 6.4 8.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 5.5 4.5 1.6 -5.2 10.3 12.6 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 99 1 0 100 5.0 4.3 2.8 -5.0 11.8 14.9 6.6 8.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 4.7 3.8 2.8 -5.6 11.3 13.6 7.7 9.4 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 4.3 2.4 1.1 -5.2 6.6 7.8 6.0 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 5.6 4.3 1.5 -5.6 10.0 11.8 6.9 9.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 95 5 0 100 3.0 2.5 3.0 -4.7 12.8 13.4 4.5 7.2 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 2.7 1.9 1.2 -5.7 10.0 13.4 5.3 6.4 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 3.5 2.8 3.4 -4.9 12.0 13.6 6.1 8.0 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 86 14 0 100 2.6 1.9 0.7 -5.0 13.8 17.0 2.9 5.7 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 4.7 2.9 3.0 -5.5 9.3 10.9 7.0 9.4 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 3.0 2.6 3.1 -4.9 10.9 12.3 5.3 7.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 96 4 0 100 4.1 2.9 3.4 -5.0 11.7 13.7 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 5.3 4.3 2.7 -5.6 10.6 12.9 7.8 10.7 11.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 3.4 2.5 2.2 -5.1 10.2 11.7 6.1 8.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 5.6 5.0 2.1 -4.2 14.6 16.5 6.3 7.9 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 4.6 3.8 3.2 -4.7 12.4 14.3 5.9 9.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 4.5 1.7 -0.3 -6.0 5.8 7.4 6.2 7.5 8.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 2.0 1.1 1.1 -5.4 11.7 15.4 3.4 5.8 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 3.5 2.5 3.5 -4.7 12.2 14.1 5.8 7.9 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------