***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 -1.5 -2.0 17.7 26.2 -1.0 -0.3 0.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 -2.1 -2.3 -1.7 -1.8 19.9 26.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.1 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 0.0 -0.3 -1.6 -2.0 18.0 25.9 0.2 1.1 2.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 -6.0 -6.4 -4.8 -2.4 16.3 21.3 -4.8 -4.2 -3.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 -2.2 -2.7 -3.7 -2.1 17.9 24.7 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -5.4 -1.9 20.0 26.4 -1.8 -1.3 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 -2.1 -2.5 -1.5 -1.8 20.1 27.9 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 -7.2 -7.2 -5.0 -1.8 21.0 28.3 -6.4 -5.0 -4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 -1.3 -1.6 -3.2 -1.9 18.8 27.7 -1.0 -0.2 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 -2.0 -2.1 -4.4 -1.8 20.7 28.3 -1.5 -0.5 0.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.2 -2.0 18.2 26.0 -1.8 -0.7 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 -3.4 -3.2 -4.6 -2.0 19.8 26.6 -2.5 -1.5 -0.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 -4.6 -1.8 21.3 27.8 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 -3.3 -1.7 20.7 29.5 -0.4 0.2 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 -2.6 -3.1 -3.4 -2.3 15.3 21.5 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 -1.5 -1.6 -4.7 -2.1 18.7 25.3 -0.7 0.1 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 -2.3 -2.5 -1.7 -1.8 19.2 27.7 -1.6 -1.1 -0.3 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 -4.1 -4.2 -5.0 -1.8 21.9 29.3 -3.2 -1.9 -1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.8 18.7 26.6 -1.3 -0.5 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 -7.3 -6.1 -5.6 -1.6 24.9 31.3 -5.9 -5.2 -4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 -1.6 -2.1 -2.2 -2.0 16.5 26.3 -1.3 -0.5 0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -1.7 -1.8 17.6 26.6 -1.5 -0.8 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 -2.0 -2.3 -1.8 -1.8 18.2 27.3 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -3.5 -1.7 21.0 28.8 -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.6 -2.0 18.5 25.3 -1.2 -0.4 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.6 -1.8 20.7 28.6 -1.6 -0.9 -0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 -1.8 -2.2 -1.8 -1.9 19.2 27.1 -1.1 0.0 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 -3.2 -3.5 -4.7 -2.5 15.4 21.0 -3.0 -2.2 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 -4.5 -4.8 -5.3 -1.7 24.4 30.9 -3.3 -3.0 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 -1.8 -2.2 -1.6 -1.9 19.7 26.7 -1.0 -0.3 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------