***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 -3.5 -2.2 -2.2 -1.7 29.3 38.3 -1.9 -0.6 1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 -3.6 -3.0 -2.2 -1.5 30.7 38.8 -2.7 -1.0 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 -2.2 -1.6 29.1 38.3 -1.0 1.0 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -7.6 -6.8 -5.3 -1.8 26.4 35.8 -6.5 -5.4 -3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -3.9 -3.2 -4.7 -1.7 28.2 37.5 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -4.0 -4.1 -6.1 -1.6 28.3 38.2 -3.6 -1.9 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 -3.9 -3.1 -2.0 -1.5 30.9 39.3 -3.0 -0.9 0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -5.2 -7.2 -5.9 -1.6 30.9 39.1 -7.0 -5.7 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -2.4 -4.1 -1.6 30.2 38.5 -2.2 -0.7 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 -3.0 -2.4 -5.3 -1.6 32.3 39.0 -2.4 -0.8 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 -3.4 -3.7 -5.2 -1.7 28.2 37.3 -2.5 -0.5 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 -4.0 -4.2 -5.6 -1.6 29.7 38.4 -3.9 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -3.5 -2.3 -5.6 -1.5 32.7 38.9 -2.3 -0.7 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -2.2 -1.6 -4.1 -1.5 33.5 39.6 -1.6 -0.4 0.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 -3.1 -3.5 -4.3 -1.8 25.5 35.2 -3.0 -0.7 0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -2.9 -3.1 -5.6 -1.7 29.3 37.1 -2.2 -0.4 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 -3.9 -3.3 -2.0 -1.5 32.2 39.9 -3.3 -1.1 0.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 -4.4 -3.8 -5.9 -1.5 35.8 39.7 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 -3.3 -2.3 -2.2 -1.5 29.6 38.4 -2.1 -0.9 0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -4.2 -6.5 -6.6 -1.5 35.0 40.8 -6.8 -4.7 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 -3.6 -2.6 -3.0 -1.7 29.4 38.1 -2.5 -0.8 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 -3.7 -2.9 -2.3 -1.5 30.6 38.9 -2.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 -3.5 -2.2 -2.4 -1.5 29.3 38.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 -3.0 -2.5 -4.4 -1.5 33.6 39.3 -2.5 -0.7 -0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -3.6 -1.7 29.4 37.4 -2.4 -1.0 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 -3.7 -2.7 -5.5 -1.4 32.4 40.3 -2.6 -1.1 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 -4.1 -2.5 -2.6 -1.7 30.4 38.8 -2.0 -0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 -4.4 -5.0 -5.2 -1.8 26.0 36.0 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 -3.6 -5.1 -6.1 -1.5 35.9 39.9 -5.3 -4.2 -2.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 -3.6 -2.7 -2.2 -1.6 29.7 38.6 -2.3 -0.8 0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------