***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 73 27 0 100 -2.2 -3.0 -1.7 -2.8 18.0 26.0 -1.8 1.0 1.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 -2.5 -3.2 -1.6 -2.3 21.7 28.8 -1.8 -0.3 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.7 18.3 27.0 -0.4 1.0 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -6.7 -7.8 -4.6 -3.1 17.2 24.8 -5.2 -2.7 -1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 -3.6 -3.0 19.6 25.6 -2.2 -1.1 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 -3.7 -4.8 -5.5 -3.0 17.3 25.1 -3.0 -1.2 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -2.5 -2.7 -1.5 -2.3 22.6 29.2 -2.0 -0.6 0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -7.5 -8.4 -4.9 -2.6 21.1 28.2 -5.9 -4.4 -3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 -2.0 -2.2 -3.3 -2.8 18.5 25.8 -1.5 -0.3 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -4.4 -2.7 20.3 27.5 -2.1 -1.3 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 -3.0 -3.4 -4.1 -3.0 18.3 25.0 -2.0 -0.9 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 -4.0 -4.4 -4.5 -2.9 19.4 26.3 -2.8 -1.4 -0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 -3.7 -4.7 -4.6 -3.0 17.4 25.7 -2.5 -0.9 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.3 -2.5 20.5 30.0 -1.0 0.4 1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 -2.6 -3.2 -3.4 -3.2 14.6 22.8 -2.3 -1.2 0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 -2.5 -3.2 -4.7 -3.2 16.8 24.3 -1.2 -0.1 1.3 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 -3.1 -3.3 -1.5 -2.2 23.5 30.0 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 -3.7 -4.0 -4.8 -2.4 24.2 30.4 -3.0 -1.9 -0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 -2.4 -2.0 -1.6 -2.3 21.4 28.4 -1.2 -0.5 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -7.4 -7.4 -5.5 -2.3 24.9 31.3 -7.2 -5.8 -3.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 -2.8 -3.1 -2.2 -2.8 18.6 26.9 -2.0 -1.0 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 -2.5 -2.6 -1.5 -2.2 23.4 29.1 -1.8 -0.6 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8 -2.4 20.1 28.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -1.9 -2.4 -3.3 -2.5 21.9 29.8 -1.9 -0.8 0.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -2.5 -2.8 19.2 26.1 -1.6 -0.2 0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 -2.7 -3.7 -4.4 -2.8 18.4 26.6 -2.1 -0.2 0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 -2.4 -3.4 -1.9 -2.8 19.7 26.8 -2.3 0.7 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 -3.8 -4.3 -4.6 -3.4 15.6 23.5 -3.4 -2.0 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -5.0 -5.7 -5.3 -2.4 23.8 30.6 -4.1 -2.8 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 -2.4 -3.0 -1.5 -2.4 20.1 28.0 -1.9 -0.2 1.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------