***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 -0.4 -0.9 0.0 -2.4 22.4 26.1 -0.3 1.5 2.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -0.4 -2.5 22.5 25.5 -0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -2.6 19.8 24.2 1.0 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 93 7 0 100 -5.7 -6.6 -4.1 -3.7 9.8 13.4 -3.8 -2.4 -1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -2.8 17.1 21.6 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.5 -2.0 21.1 28.0 -1.0 0.3 1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 -0.9 -1.1 -0.3 -2.4 22.3 26.4 -0.4 1.4 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -6.4 -6.2 -3.2 -2.2 23.6 28.2 -5.3 -4.2 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 -0.5 -0.6 -1.2 -2.0 22.4 27.1 0.5 1.2 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 -2.6 -2.1 24.0 28.1 -0.1 1.0 2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 -1.6 -2.2 -1.9 -2.3 20.2 25.0 -0.6 0.6 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 -2.8 -2.2 -2.5 -2.3 21.8 26.2 -1.4 -0.6 0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 -1.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 26.5 31.1 -0.8 0.5 1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 0.4 0.0 -1.5 -2.0 25.8 30.6 0.4 1.7 2.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 -1.7 -2.1 -1.9 -2.9 11.7 16.5 -0.4 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 -0.6 -0.7 -2.4 -2.3 20.8 24.8 0.2 1.0 2.4 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 -1.2 -1.4 -0.9 -2.7 21.3 23.9 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.1 -2.2 24.6 28.2 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -2.4 22.4 25.5 -0.1 0.9 1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -5.3 -4.7 -3.9 -2.1 28.6 31.1 -4.4 -3.5 -2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -2.4 20.1 24.9 0.1 0.8 2.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 -0.6 -2.6 21.6 23.7 -0.4 0.5 0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -2.2 22.5 26.9 0.2 1.1 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 -0.3 -0.5 -1.5 -2.0 23.6 28.6 -0.1 1.0 1.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -2.6 21.6 24.3 0.2 0.8 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.9 -1.7 26.5 31.1 -0.8 0.5 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -0.8 -1.0 -0.1 -2.2 25.7 28.0 -0.6 1.0 3.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 -2.5 -4.8 -3.6 -3.6 9.9 13.7 -1.2 0.1 1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 -3.4 -3.5 -3.6 -1.9 29.5 32.3 -3.4 -1.1 -0.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 -0.6 -0.9 -0.2 -2.4 22.0 25.8 0.0 1.5 2.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------