***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 82.6 52.4 46.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 6.7 8.1 80.4 54.6 46.5 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.5 9.2 84.5 56.9 47.5 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 10.0 93.1 57.0 50.6 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.7 10.4 92.1 54.8 49.2 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.0 15.8 12.8 119.0 67.0 56.9 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.9 8.2 82.0 57.1 46.9 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.0 12.2 95.5 54.4 48.7 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.1 8.7 10.9 90.5 51.9 48.0 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.8 11.8 91.6 52.7 47.4 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.2 10.3 93.5 53.7 48.8 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.4 11.0 99.6 55.3 50.4 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.8 12.0 107.3 58.2 53.9 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.8 11.7 10.7 81.3 49.8 45.1 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 13.7 9.3 93.2 61.6 50.3 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 7.0 13.3 10.8 101.1 57.0 52.1 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 10.7 8.0 81.3 59.8 46.5 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.2 12.8 88.7 51.6 46.4 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.6 8.2 79.6 53.7 45.7 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.3 15.7 90.0 54.9 47.6 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.5 10.1 88.4 54.2 48.3 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.4 8.2 79.6 58.4 45.1 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.3 8.7 79.0 52.4 44.9 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.3 9.0 11.1 85.8 51.1 46.3 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.8 10.3 88.0 54.7 48.0 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.7 12.0 108.7 61.9 53.6 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.3 9.7 84.7 52.0 46.3 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.7 12.6 9.9 97.5 61.6 51.7 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.0 16.4 13.9 87.8 51.5 46.3 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.7 8.3 80.8 54.6 46.6 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------